White Suburban Punk

The Red Sox managed to win two games with walkoffs against the Rangers before being shut out last night.  Clay Buchholz was excellent before tiring, however, so that’s a good sign.  New hero Darnell McDonald was finally kept hitless, although he did have a walk.  Tonight Jon Lester tries to straighten things out against Baltimore at Fenway.

The Bruins look to wrap up their surprising series with Buffalo tonight in Buffalo.  Where this team was all year, no one knows, but they have been an absolute joy to watch in this series.  Johnny Boychuk and Vladimir Sobotka are my new favorite players, and Tukka Rask has been fantastic.

The Celtics go on the road for game 3 of their series against the Heat after blowing them out in game 2.  Once again, I have no idea what will happen tonight, but it’s possible the C’s could put up another dominating performance.  They’ve been strong on the road all season, and now they have KG back.  Of course, with all signs pointing up, that probably means they’re due for a stinker.  Glen Davis has been awesome in the first two games of this series, while Rasheed Wallace only made the news for getting another fine by the league.

The Patriots ready for rounds 2 and 3 of the draft tonight, where they have three picks in the second and one in the third.  They went with a DB out of Rutgers in the first round, Devin McCourty, who Bill Belichick claims was who they wanted.  Today there are the usual overreactions from the media, stating that the secondary was the only area that didn’t need any help this offseason.  Belichick is apparently close with Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, which should provide him with added insight, but the experts in the Boston media know that Belichick hasn’t done anything here in New England to prove he has any idea what he’s doing, so they’re feeding off each other like maggots today.

The 2000s were a great decade for the New England Patriots, the only period of sustained excellence in franchise history.  Dan Shaughnessy even wrote articles about how Patriots fans were spoiled.  That’s all over now.  It’s a new decade, and now it’s time to see if Bill Belichick can prevent the team from slipping to mediocrity.  They’re clearly not among the elite anymore. 

What started as a tough, ball control team with a great defense early in the decade morphed into the ultimate finesse team at the end of the decade.  The defense is no longer stout, and, with several young players,  its remaking has already begun.  Vince Wilfork is the biggest contractual question this offseason, but it still looks like the team needs more and better talent at both linebacker and in the secondary.

Offensively, Tom Brady was simply awful yesterday, and pretty inconsistent all year.  He was supposedly suffering from rib, finger, and shoulder ailments, and I actually hope that’s the case.  A lot of his passes were ducks yesterday — more were fluttering around than seemed to have the characteristic Brady zip.  Sure, it was a comeback year from the knee injury.  But to get back to being a threat to go to the Super Bowl, this team needs far better play from its quarterback.

There are other issues with the offense.  Laurence Maroney had one carry yesterday.  What will happen with him this offseason?  Wide receiver depth is clearly an issue.  The team really never had a #3 wideout all season.  The Joey Galloway signing was a disaster, but who really could’ve predicted that?  The offensive line has been together for a long time, but it may be remade this offseason.  Stephen Neal may retire, Logan Mankins is a free agent, and Matt Light has seen better days.

Belichick is actually facing a more difficult task now than when he took over the team.  Back then, expectations were low and the region was so starved for a winner that everything was gravy.  And sure, a lot of things broke the right way for the Patriots last decade.  Belichick built a legitimate dynasty here, but it is now crumbling, as they all do.  It will be interesting to see if BB makes any changes to his coaching staff.  The defense didn’t seem as inventive or creative as in years past, and it may be time to get a legitimate offensive coordinator, too.

The team has stockpiled numerous draft picks in the next two drafts, and the next two seasons will be uncapped, too.  The Patriots are entering a crucial period in their history, and it will be a great challenge for Bill Belichick.  But there’s no one I’d rather have in charge.

Flight of the Conchords is over after two seasons.  Great show, but probably a good decision.  How far could these guys really go before things got tired?  It was just too creative to go on for too long.  Hopefully they’ll come up with some one-off type stuff, and maybe some HBO specials.

On another TV note, Friday Night Lights has been incredible this season.  Best show on television, bar none.

The news from Patriots camp is pretty insane, with the two losses in a row, the inability to win in someone else’s stadium, the four players being sent home, Adalius Thomas essentially blasting BB, and now Brady supposedly has a rib injury.  Things really seem to be falling apart, but BB has four games to rally them.  It’s been a confusing year.  They still have so much talent on offense, but stunningly can’t execute, especially in crunch time.  I think Bill O’Brien has to get a lot of blame for the play calling.  It seems that whenever they start running the ball effectively, they immediately go away from it.  Please come back, Charlie Weis.  The defense has probably played about as well as anyone could have expected, with the youth and all the new players.  Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess appear to be bums, and the lack of a pass rush is killing them.  Any secondary would look bad put in that situation.  It’s incredible that they’ve already lost as many games this year as last year, especially considering how Matt Cassel has played this year.  Four games to get their act together, get back to basics, and PLAY TO WIN THE GAME.

The Sox are reportedly close to consummating the deal trading Mike Lowell to the Rangers.  Great guy, 2007 World Series MVP, but the team just has to have better defense on third base.  Of course, they now have to replace his bat, too.  I would think they’re either going to trade for Adrian Gonzalez or sign Adrian Beltre.  If they trade for Gonzalez, Roy Halladay is obviously out.  My guess is that Jason Bay will re-sign here, but if not, I don’t think they’ll get Matt Holliday.  LF would probably end up being a platoon between Jeremy Hermida and somebody like Xavier Nady. 

Is everyone excited about Marco Scutaro?  No.  Boof Bonser?  No, but I’ve actually always liked him.  He was a first round pick in 2000, and is now coming off shoulder surgery.  Good risk, but probably not lots of upside.  After the yankees traded for Curtis Granderson, if they get Bay or Matt Holliday or, god forbid, Doc Halladay, just forget 2010 and 2011.  Although Doc is probably out for them now after trading away one of their top prospects in the Granderson deal.  They could sign John Lackey, though, which would be almost as bad.  I’ve always liked him; it’s too bad the Sox don’t seem to be looking at him any closer.  Theo did have a comment about 2010 being a “bridge” to the future, and it’s getting to the point where no one will be able to compete with yankees next year anyway, so why bother.

The only good news this offseason has been the report that Peter Gammons is leaving the four letter network to join MLB Network and NESN.  Welcome home, Commish.

Badger football doesn’t get a New Year’s Day bowl game after the Outback Bowl bizarrely picked Northwestern.  Sure, they beat the Badgers, but we had a better overall record.  Anyway, I much prefer the matchup against Miami.  Better team than Auburn, and Miami is a team I truly hate.  Incidentally, ESPN’s 30 For 30 show is doing “The U” this Saturday night.  I’ve watched all the episodes so far of this thing, and it’s really good.

Badger hoops got themselves ranked after beating Duke, and then lost in OT at UW-Green Bay.  Harsh, but it looks like UWGB is actually a pretty good team, so hopefully that loss won’t look so bad later in the season.  Marquette is up this Saturday at 6:00 Eastern on ESPN2, in Madison.  Gotta win that one.

Badger hockey is on a nice roll, and they look like they could be for real this season.  They’re #11 in the country now, and they play at #3 North Dakota this weekend.  Friday night’s game will be televised on the NHL network, and I think they usually use the Badger announcers for those games.  The trend this year is for the Badgers to massively outshoot their opponents, at least with shots that reach the goalie.  Five of Wisconsin’s six defensemen have been drafted in the first two rounds of the NHL draft.

Liverpool finished up their Champions League schedule with yet another hard luck loss, this time to Fiorentina at Anfield, giving up the game winning goal basically at the death.  They play a huge game against Arsenal Sunday at Anfield.  I think it will be televised on Fox Soccer Channel.  It looks like Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard will both start for the first time since October.

Everton is supposedly in talks to get Landon Donovan on loan from the MLS.  Hopefully it happens, but I’m skeptical.  The league owns all the contracts in the MLS, and they have a history of asking for exorbitant sums for players on loan.  It would be great for Landycakes, though, and I would be really curious to see how he performs in the Premiership.

That’s all I got.

Perfect 8-0 on college picks last week, and 8-8 on pro games, all against the spread.  That makes me 38-32 overall on pro games.  On to Turkey Week:

College:

Clemson (-2.5) over SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina has lost three straight and four of five, while Clemson has won six straight and is one of the hottest teams in the country.  Stephen Garcia still makes a lot of stupid decisions that tear Steve Spurrier’s heart out.

GEORGIA TECH (-7) over Georgia

Georgia blew a halftime lead and lost at home to Kentucky last week, while Georgia Tech has won eight straight and is looking forward to its ACC title game vs. Clemson.

Ole Miss (-7) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Ole Miss will have something to prove in the Egg Bowl after winning the bizarre LSU game last week.  Mississippi State isn’t going anywhere.

North Carolina (-5.5) over NC STATE

UNC has won four straight, including over Virginia Tech and Miami, while NC State is not going bowling and has lost six of their last seven.

COLORADO (+8) over Nebraska

It’s a rivalry game, at least for Colorado, and they have no hope for a bowl game, so this is it.  This game doesn’t matter in the least to Nebraska, who is waiting to be destroyed by Texas in the Big 12 championship next week.  Plus, Nebraska’s offense is weak, and Colorado has actually showed a little life lately, with the close loss to Oklahoma State.  Dan Hawkins may not even get fired, but that’s because of budget constraints.

Wyoming (+3) over COLORADO STATE

Border war, and Wyoming is coming off a thrilling comeback win against San Diego State.  They become bowl eligible with a win.  Colorado State is 0-6 in the conference and one of the worst teams in FBS.

Marshall (+1) over UTEP

UTEP lost to Rice last week, for chrissake, and has completely fallen apart down the stretch.  Marshall beat a pretty good SMU team and is still alive for a bowl bid.

SOUTH FLORIDA (+1) over Miami

Miami continues to be inconsistent and has motivation problems, while South Florida considers this to be a big game, and it’s at home.  They’re both going bowling, but Jacory Harris mistakes will cost Miami.

IDAHO (+1) over Utah State

Idaho is at home and needs a win to lock down a bowl bid.  Utah State isn’t going anywhere and their best win was against San Jose State.

NFL:

Green Bay (-11) over DETROIT

The Lions will be without Player of the Week Matthew Stafford, so Daunte Culpepper will start.  The Packers are fourth in the NFL in total offense, while Detroit is last in scoring defense and 31st in total defense.

DALLAS (-14) over Oakland

The Cowboys desperately want to get their offense going, and Oakland will be coming in happy with their upset last week.  Bad combination.

NY Giants (-6) over DENVER

Denver is reeling, having lost four straight, and hasn’t scored an offensive TD in its last two games at home.  It looked like the Giants got untracked last week with the OT win over Atlanta.

ATLANTA (-12.5) over Tampa Bay

The Bucs are in turmoil with their demotion of the defensive coordinator and Atlanta needs a big win at home to turn things around after two straight road losses.

Miami (-3) over BUFFALO

The Dolphins have won two straight close ones, while Buffalo has lost three in a row. 

CINCINNATI (-15) over Cleveland

Bengals were upset last week in Oakland, so they’ll be focused.  Browns had the stupid pass interference to lose to Detroit in a heart breaker.

Carolina (+2.5) over NY JETS

The Jets just won’t shut up, while Carolina has quietly gone 4-3 after losing three straight to begin the year.

Washington (+9) over PHILADELPHIA

‘Skins have been playing terrific defense, while the Eagles have played three straight close games.

ST. LOUIS (+2.5) over Seattle

Although both teams are just playing out the string, St. Louis has lost close ones to New Orleans and Arizona the last two weeks.  Seattle is playing its third straight road game and has looked awful.

Kansas City (+14.5) over SAN DIEGO

The Chiefs have won two straight and look much better than when San Diego blew them out in KC.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Jacksonville

Tough call, but I like the ’49ers.  The Jags have overachieved to reach 6-4, while SF has underachieved to 4-6.  Long road trip for the Jags.

MINNESOTA (-9.5) over Chicago

I keep picking against the Vikings and losing, but there’s no way I’m picking Jay Cutler.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Arizona

Cards are 5-0 on the road, but I guess I believe in Vince Young.  WTF?

Pittsburgh (+2) over BALTIMORE

Both teams are hurting, and it’s a big game for playoff implications.  I still don’t believe in Baltimore.  Their defense isn’t as good as they think it is.

Houston (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS

What the hell.

New England (+2.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Could be a classic, and I’ll never pick against Belichick when his team has a chip on their shoulder.

The media is going to love this.  In fact, they’re already gleefully blaming Bill Belichick for the loss to Indy.  After the game, Bob Costas, Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth, Marvin Harrison, and Tony Dungy all had variants of “he did not trust his defense.”  Over on ESPN, Trent Dilfer called the decision to go for it on 4th and 2 “ludicrous” and “ridiculous.” 

The Patriots’ clock management in the last two minutes was certainly curious.  They used their final two time outs when the clock was already stopped because of personnel problems, and therefore didn’t have the ability to challenge the spot on Kevin Faulk’s catch.  Preliminarily, I would submit that it was a terrible spot.  From what I could see, Faulk didn’t “juggle” the ball as Al Michaels described — he tipped it and then caught it.  To me, a “juggle” necessarily requires more than one tip.  Anyway, after he caught the pass, his feet landed on the ground, one north of the 30 yard line, and one on the 30 yard line.  I don’t know how that can be spotted short of the 30.  Obviously, that’s irrelevant now.

Bill Belichick made a Bill Belichick decision.  He is a coach who makes ballsy calls.  That’s who he is.  I actually think that decision showed how much he does trust his players.  He trusted one of the best offenses in the league to make two yards after they had already piled up 34 points and 477 yards in the game.  And he trusted his defense to keep the Colts out of the end zone from 29 yards out if the offense failed.  In fact, the Colts probably would have gotten the ball back even if the play had correctly been ruled a first down.  The Colts would’ve used their last time out before the 2:00 warning, Brady would’ve taken a knee, 2:00 warning, knee (3rd down), 1:20 left, knee (4th down), :40, punt.  So the Colts would’ve had about :35 seconds from somewhere in the neighborhood of their 35 yard line.

And while everyone is blaming Belichick, what about the Patriots’ two turnovers in the end zone on the first two possessions of the second half?  Were those Belichick’s fault?  That’s where the game should have been won.  The players lost the game, not the coach.

UPDATE: Advanced NFL Stats breaks down the Win Probability from the Patriots’ various options and concludes that going for it on the 4th and 2 was the right move.  I’m sure that will get a lot of media play.