White Suburban Punk

10 man Liverpool lost in Lisbon to Benfica, 2-1, in the first leg of the Europa League quarterfinal.  Some truly unbelievable officiating sealed their fate.

Liverpool started strong, continuing their flowing play from last Sunday’s game against Sunderland.  At nine minutes, Steven Gerrard was taken down just outside the box and he cleverly grounded his free kick to a wide open Daniel Agger, who backheeled it into the net.  Liverpool had the all-important away goal and it forced Benfica to attack.  Coming into the game, Benfica was unbeaten at home in their last 25 games in all competitions, and although they created some quick, clever chances, it was all Liverpool for the first 15 minutes.

Things started to change as Benfica’s play got rougher and more reckless and they were not sanctioned by the official, Swede Jonas Eriksson.  Twice in the first 25 minutes Liverpool players were kicked in the head by wild Benfica players going after loose balls and neither resulted in a foul.  Then, at 30 minutes, Fernando Torres was slammed to the ground from behind by Luisao, who then went after Ryan Babel.  Babel tried to defend himself by putting out his hand to keep the thug away from him.  Shockingly, Luisao received just a yellow card and Babel was shown red.  So Babel was thrown out of the game after Torres was fouled.  Say what?  With Liverpool down to 10 men, Benfica realized that it was open season on Torres and began mugging him every time he came near the ball.  Incredibly, Torres scored at 37 minutes off a free kick, but the play was mysteriously ruled offside.  As the announcer said in his sing-song British accent, “it’s a very, very hostile atmosphere on the pitch at the moment.”

The perversion continued late in the first half when Emilio Insua, who was on a yellow card from a previous game, received another one for barely touching a Benfica player.  He is now suspended for the second leg next week.  Incredibly, Liverpool still led at halftime, 1-0, and I actually wrote in my notebook, “it’s looking like the ref will have to give some penalties for Benfica to get the win.”  That’s exactly what happened.

The attacks on Torres continued, and at 58 minutes, Benfica was awarded an extremely questionable free kick right outside the box.  The ball was drilled off the post and in the battle for the rebound, Benfica was incredibly awarded a penalty kick, apparently due to a phantom foul where a Benfica player dove to the ground near Insua.  The PK was converted by Oscar Cardozo to tie the game at 1-1, and then the crowd really started getting out of control, shooting fireworks at the Liverpool goal for the rest of the game.  A second PK was awarded and converted at 79 minutes off a handball from Jamie Carragher, and Torres was mercifully replaced at 82 minutes before he could be injured.  It’s incredible he lasted that long without getting seriously hurt.  After the game, I didn’t see any Liverpool players shake the hands of any officials, and Rafa Benitez blasted them after the game, but the result stands.  At least Liverpool got the away goal, they can’t take that away from them.  The return leg is Thursday, April 8.  Meantime, Liverpool play at Birmingham in the Premiership Sunday.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

I have mentioned several times my belief that Liverpool has been unlucky or unfortunate on numerous occasions this season.  I tried to see if there was some way to measure this, and the only obvious one is to use goal differential.

The Pythagorean expectation was invented by the great Bill James for use in baseball to determine a team’s expected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed.  In James’ formula, Win % = (Runs scored)²/(Runs scored)² +(Runs allowed)².

I tried this formula with the Premiership, but the variations were pretty wild from the actual results.  Using a Poisson model, however, yields much a much more accurate picture.  Thus, the formula I used is: (Goals scored/(Goals scored + Goals allowed)) X available points.  Thus, Liverpool has 53 goals scored and 32 goals allowed this season, and has played 32 games.  (53/(53 + 32)) X (32 games X 3 points available) = 53/85 X 96 = 59.85 expected points.  Liverpool have 54 points, so they are 6 points below their expected results.  A negative difference shows how unfortunate a team has been.  Here are the calculations for all the teams in the Premiership:

The formula may underweigh teams at the bottom of the table, as teams ranked #11 – #20 are all negative except Wigan and there are only two positives in the whole league.  But there are five results that register as spot on, and I haven’t been able to find a variation that seems to work any better.  This at least shows that Liverpool has been the most unfortunate team in the top half of the league based on goal differential and expected results, and the statistics follow what the eye sees.  I’ll try to keep thinking of a better way to measure it.

Liverpool lost at Sunderland in October on the infamous “beach ball goal,” when Sunderland’s Darren Bent scored the game’s only goal on a shot that was deflected by a beach ball that had been thrown onto the field.  Subsequent commentary revealed that the goal should have been disallowed, and it marked one of many instances of poor fortune for Liverpool this season.  In the return leg Sunday at Anfield, Liverpool left no chance for bad luck to influence the game.  In perhaps their most dominating performance of the season, Fernando Torres scored two goals and Liverpool cruised to a 3-0 win, which could easily have been at least 6-0 in the first half alone.

Torres got the scoring started just three minutes in on one of the most amazing goals you’ll ever see, an absolutely magical shot that was perfectly placed in the upper corner of the net.  And that was actually Liverpool’s second quality scoring chance, as Daniel Agger just missed in the first minute off a Steven Gerrard free kick.

All game Liverpool dictated the pace with energy and tempo and crisp, authoritative passes.  It was truly beautiful football, and the players themselves looked like they were having loads of fun, as there were smiles all over the field.  At 32 minutes, Glen Johnson made it 2-0 with a deflected left footed blast off a corner kick, and soon after, Torres knocked a shot off the post and then sent the rebound wide, prompting laughter and smiles from his teammates. At 60 minutes, El Nino put the game away when he calmly settled the ball in the box and knocked it into the corner of the goal.  Torres has now scored 7 goals in his last 4 games.  This was a great example of how much talent is actually on this team when they’re all healthy.  I don’t know if they even need four world class players this summer, as Torres says.

Liverpool sit in sixth place, four points behind fourth place Tottenham, who have one game in hand.  The Europa League round of eight starts Thursday at Benfica, and they play at Birmingham City Sunday in the Premiership.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

Wow, do these teams hate each other.  After five red cards in the last five games between these teams, Sir Alex Ferguson was crying that Javier Mascherano didn’t receive one Sunday, even though it was highly questionable whether the penalty kick should have even been awarded.  Nevertheless, Liverpool lost, 2-1.  

Fernando Torres opened the scoring just five minutes in on a beautiful combination with Dirk Kuyt and Steven Gerrard.  It was the first goal by a visiting team at Old Trafford in three months.  Just six minutes later, Antonio Valencia went down in the penalty box and Man U was awarded a penalty kick, which was saved by Pepe Reina, but Wayne Rooney deposited the rebound to tie the game.  Not only did Valenica go down shockingly easily from very little contact, but the contact that occurred was outside of the penalty box.  The supposed best referee in the league, Howard Webb, did not even consult with his assistant before awarding the PK and giving Mascherano a yellow card.  Typically, Sir Alex complained that Mascherano should’ve been shown red for interfering with a clear goal scoring chance, even though Jamie Carragher was right there.  Rafa and Sir Alex began yelling at each other on the sideline, and the match continued at a frenzied pace.  Valencia did not earn free kicks for obvious dives later in the half, but he didn’t get yellow cards, either.

With the game tied in the second half, Man U started controlling possession, although their only scoring threats were from Park Ji-sung, who did a good job heading in a nice cross from Darren Fletcher at 60 minutes.  Liverpool was unable to put together any sustained threats and Torres couldn’t put away a couple of difficult chances on bouncing balls in the box late.

Standings:

Club                       Played            Points

Man U                        31                    69

Arsenal                     31                    67

Chelsea                     30                    65

Tottenham              30                    55

Man City                  29                     53

Liverpool                31                     51

Aston Villa             29                     50

A top 4 finish is looking less and less likely, which would be a disaster whose repercussions would last for years.  Liverpool has an easier schedule than the other teams, but only 7 games remaining.  Next is home against thirteenth place Sunderland on Sunday.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

I finally got a chance to watch Liverpool defeat Lille, 3-0, to take the two game home and home series, 3-1 on aggregate.  Fernando Torres was fantastic, scoring two goals and creating several more chances.  Of course, the atmosphere was a bit tense at Anfield as the Reds trailed, 1-0 coming into the game.  But Lucas made a quick run into the box early and was hauled down in an easy call for a PK that was converted by Steven Gerrard.  Liverpool made quick, decisive, confident passes throughout the game, but there were still moments of nervousness.  All too often this season Liverpool fans have seen their hearts broken late in games.  Pepe Reina was forced to make a great save in the 33rd minute off an explosive attack, and Lille created some other chances, but Liverpool pretty much carried the play.  Early in the second half, Torres got his first on a long pass from Ryan Babel, who got another start, to make it 2-0.  Of course, with the away goal rule, it was still far from over, and things got a bit awkward for a while, as Liverpool seemed to debate between defending and going for the third goal to put it away.  The crowd was clearly nervous, too, but finally in the 89th minute Dirk Kuyt fed Gerrard, whose shot was saved, but Torres got the rebound to end it.  After this game, Liverpool had scored 7 goals in their last 2 games with Manchester United next.

Diego Maradona was in the crowd.  He was watching his Argentinian players Javier Mascherano and Emilio Insua.  The third Argentinian national that plays for Liverpool, Maxi Rodriguez, is ineligible for European play because he came over in the January transfer window.

The draw for the round of eight in the Europa League took place Friday, and Liverpool drew Benfica, who knocked them out of the Champions League in 2006.  The first leg is Thursday, April 1, in Portugal.  The winner will get the Valencia/Atletico Madrid winner.

Albert Riera was suspended by Liverpool after giving an interview less than 24 hours before the Lille game in which he called the team a “sinking ship.”  He was also whining about playing time.  Great timing, classy guy.  I never liked him, and to me, Ryan Babel is far more effective playing on the left than Riera ever was.  Today’s news is that Riera has been sold to CSKA Moscow for 6 million pounds.  Addition by subtraction, plus they get some money (which better be used on players this summer).  Buh bye, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Liverpool crushed Portsmouth (“the Premiership’s basket case”) at Anfield on Monday, 4-1.  The game was shown in marvelous high definition on ESPN2 here in the states, and they must be complimented for some truly impressive camera work on the replays.  Glen Johnson, Daniel Agger, Alberto Aquilani, Maxi Rodriguez, and Ryan Babel got starts, while Lucas and Dirk Kuyt were left on the bench.  The Anfield crowd was very subdued at the start of the game, which is understandable given the last two games.  The announcers actually mentioned empty seats and it turned out to be the lowest attendance for a Premiership game at Anfield in five years. 

Liverpool was crisp, decisive, and creative right from the start.  Where was this confidence and desire at Lille and Wigan?  I don’t know, but it was great to see.  Hopefully this new-found aggression continues, as every game the rest of the way is essentially a must win now.

After all the strong play to start the game, the first goal was a gift off a giveaway by Portsmouth’s backup goalie scored by Fernando Torres.  Babel scored two minutes later off a pass from Torres, and Aquilani scored his first goal for Liverpool three minutes after that, again off a pass from Torres that Gerrard let through.  Aquilani was fantastic all day, by far his best game.  It’s incredible what he can do when the opposition gives him space to maneuver.  He was confident and aggressive, but it’s still questionable whether he’ll get to play against Manchester United this weekend.

Chances continued through the end of the first half with Liverpool holding the 3-0 lead and continued in the second.  Aquilani beautifully set up Torres’ second goal at 77 minutes and Portsmouth got a late one to avoid the shutout.  How Liverpool possibly lost to these guys in December, I’ll never know.

The one bizarre occurrence on the day was Steven Gerrard throwing a wild forearm at Portsmouth’s Michael Brown at 74 minutes, with Liverpool leading 3-0.  He was immediately replaced by Rafa Benitez and the referee clearly saw it, as he spoke to Gerrard right afterwards.  The FA has since said that no action will be taken against him, but he was pretty fortunate not to get a red card, which would have forced him to miss the tilt at Old Trafford.

In other news, goalie Pepe Reina looks set to sign a contract extension, which is great news.  Fernando Torres said that his future depends on Liverpool aggressively attacking the transfer market this summer, stating that the club needs to recruit “four or five top-class players to compete.”  The only way that will happen is with new ownership, which fans can only pray for.  Speaking of, reports indicate that a 100 million pound investment bid was made by a group out of New York.  It’s expected that if they get new ownership, Rafa will be gone, while Rafa is also supposedly growing increasingly frustrated with Tom Hicks and George Gillett, so if they stay as owners, he may leave voluntarily.  Whatever the truth is, big changes could be on the way.

This is a tough stretch of games for the Reds.  They play the second leg of the Europa League Round of 16 at Anfield vs. Lille on Thursday, trailing 1-0, and then travel to Old Trafford Sunday for the much anticipated tilt with Manyoo.  Liverpool won, 4-1, at Old Trafford last year, but of course finished second to them in the standings.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

The disaster continues, and it is now possible that Rafa has lost the locker room.  My DVR screwed up, so I could only watch the first half hour of the game.  Lille’s stadium only holds 18,000 but the place was rocking.  They started out really well, too, making Pepe Reina make a save in the first minute.  Liverpool started going forward a bit as the game wore on, with Fernando Torres and Ryan Babel setting up a good shot by Babel that he should’ve done more with.  Torres also had a header that was saved in the first half.  They lost on a free kick in the 85th minute, and now trail going into the second leg.

Lille dominated the possession in the game, 57% to 43%, although at least Liverpool got six shots on goal this time.  Blackburn manager Sam Allardyce poured salt in the wound with comments about how he doesn’t like Rafa and the team won’t make it into the top 4 after the loss to Wigan.  This is one ugly season.  I don’t want to lose Rafa, but maybe it’s the best thing at this point.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

That is, yet another new low on a season of new lows.  After seeming to have turned things around with just one loss (at Arsenal) in their previous 10 league games, Liverpool lost at lowly Wigan yesterday, 1-0, in what had to be the worst performance of the season.  Zero shots on goal, five yellow cards, countless turnovers and give aways.  They were actually outplayed by a team fighting against relegation.  It was a truly inexplicable performance, and a top four finish is now in serious jeopardy.  They have only nine league games remaining and are in sixth place, but have played more games than their rivals.  They are indeed in serious trouble.  The usually reliable Dirk Kuyt’s turnover led to Wigan’s goal, but there was blame all over the field.  Gerrard, Torres, Carragher, Mascherano, Lucas, Kyrgiakos, no one played well.  The squad looked frustrated and pissed off throughout, with Gerrard even yelling at Kuyt at one point.  Today’s newspapers are claiming that Gerrard made an obscene gesture to the ref after picking up a questionable yellow card.  He made a V sign (see picture), which is somehow interpreted as the middle finger.  Some British thing, I guess, we Americans don’t know that one.

What happens if Liverpool don’t finish in the top four?  Obviously, no Champions League football next year.  But what are the consequences of that?  Does Rafa Benitez leave or get fired?  Does the team sell Gerrard and Torres?  Will Torres even want to stay if there’s no Champions League competition?  I don’t think anyone knows the answers to these questions, and fans don’t want to find out.

Picture from ESPN Soccernet

Behind goals from Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres (how good does that sound), Liverpool beat Sam Allardyce’s Blackburn 2-1 yesterday at Anfield.  Javier Mascherano started at right back and did a great job, but the story was Torres.  He was El Nino right from the start, and it’s probably not a coincidence that Gerrard got his first league goal in almost four months.  Blackburn took it to Liverpool, though, maybe even creating more chances in the game, but Gerrard scored at 20 minutes on a beautiful, sublime, lightning fast goal that involved passes from Dirk Kuyt and Yossi Benayoun.  Fabio Aurelio left the game later in the first half with an apparent thigh injury and Blackburn tied it on a penalty kick at 40 minutes after Jamie Carragher handled the ball on the ground in the penalty box.  Liverpool was very sloppy throughout the game in their own half, which certainly contributed to Blackburn’s chances, and the penalty actually followed a Benayoun turnover.  But Torres scored at 44 minutes on a pass from Maxi Rodriguez that caught keeper Paul Robinson far out of position and Liverpool held on in the second half.  Torres was magnificent all day, with his incredible speed and brilliant moves.  Blackburn had to foul him virtually every time he touched the ball. 

As is typical of Blackburn, their players committed some vicious fouls in the second half, but they received no red cards (5 yellow).  Rafa Benitez and Sam Allardyce hate each other, and their players acted it out on the pitch.  Steven Nzonzi got Lucas Leiva in a headlock and then shoved him to the ground by the face and only received a yellow.  Maxi later got a stud mark on his chest.  Credit the Liverpool players for keeping their cool and not retaliating.  Pepe Reina took a beating, too, and also had a fantastic save in injury time that saved the result for Liverpool.

There are ten matches to go in the season, including Manyoo at Old Trafford and Chelsea at Anfield.  The battle for fourth place is extremely tight, but only one of the teams battling for that spot has Fernando Torres.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

Well, the massive, huge, colossal game turned out to be a dud, although it wasn’t as bad as whoever wrote it for ESPN and Fox Soccer said it was.  Ryan Babel earned a start in this game, as well as Lucas and Maxi Rodriguez.  Fernando Torres, Yossi Benayoun, and Alberto Aquilani were on the bench, and Dirk Kuyt was the lone striker, with David Ngog apparently suffering from a sprained ankle.  There were exactly zero shots on goal in the first half by both teams, kind of unreal.  Liverpool had more of the possession, but just weren’t able to complete any passes in the final third.  But it was an especially weak performance by the home team.  I mean, they’re supposed to be playing to win the game, right?  Anyway, Man City was definitely more aggressive in the second half, and Emmanuel Adebayor had the game’s best chance, which was saved nicely by Pepe Reina.  This was after Adebayor knocked the ball down with his hand, however.

Liverpool’s substitutes were the great news from this game.  Benayoun came on for Maxi in his first game back from a broken rib and El Nino, Fernando Torres, came on for Babel at 75 minutes.  It’s been a long, long time.  Reports indicate that Glen Johnson could be back next week, too.  What will Rafa do with a fully healthy side?  He hasn’t had one all year.

Liverpool also got a lot of weak yellow cards in this game, although Javier Mascherano should’ve gotten a second yellow for a kind of vicious tackle late.

Tottenham beat Wigan Sunday, so they took over fourth place.  They’re at 46 points with 27 games played, Man City 46 points with 26 played, Liverpool 45 points with 27 played, and Aston Villa 45 points with 26 played.  So it’s as tight as a dick’s hatband.

The return leg of the Europa League knock out round is Thursday at Romania against Unirea Urziceni.  Apparently their home stadium only holds 7,000 people so I think they’re playing in Bucharest.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet