White Suburban Punk

So, was it a successful football season?

Anytime your team loses its bowl game, the answer has to lean towards no. Wisconsin football has certainly come a long way, though. Not long ago, just making any bowl game was a successful season. But the expectations are much higher now. In the last two seasons, Wisconsin has taken the mantle from Ohio State as the best team in the Big Ten. But it’s tainted by back-to-back losses in the Rose Bowl.

Just think how harsh the last four losses have been for fans of this team. The game-tying two point conversion batted down in last year’s Rose Bowl. The Hail Mary at Michigan State. The inexplicable defensive breakdown at Ohio State. And then everything that went wrong in this year’s Rose Bowl. Each loss heartbreaking, stunning, a sucker punch to the stomach.

And where are the countervailing wins, the ones we didn’t deserve but pulled out? There haven’t been any, at least not in the last year. The Nebraska game had loads of pregame hype, but it was a rout. The Penn State game was for the division championship, and it was another rout. The Big Ten Championship was a wild, fantastic game, but it just seemed like it was the Badgers’ turn. Aren’t these things supposed to even out?

At this time last year, expectations for Wisconsin football were fairly low. There was a lot of talent coming back, but they didn’t have anyone to play quarterback. Russell Wilson transformed everything and showed Wisconsin fans how much better their program could be with a legitimately elite quarterback. The Badgers finished #10 in the AP poll and were quite literally two plays away from playing for the national championship.

This year’s situation is remarkably similar, but more serious. Wisconsin loses some great talent on the offensive line again, but it seems there is always more to come. Montee Ball decided to come back for his senior year, even though there is virtually no chance he will be able to approach the numbers he compiled this season. Once again, the quarterback position is the big question on the field. But now Bret Bielema also has to replace almost all of his offensive assistants. Paul Chryst took the head job at Pittsburgh and took several coaches with him, including the recruiting coordinator, Joe Rudolph. So this offseason will really be like none other for Bielema.

No matter who he gets to run the offense, given the turmoil at Penn State and the fact that Ohio State is ineligible for postseason play next year, it looks like it will be between Wisconsin and Purdue for next year’s division title, so another trip to the conference championship is likely. So even if they take a huge step backward, they may still be one game away from a third straight trip to Pasadena.

The day after the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin basketball lost at home to Michigan State on one of the most bizarre plays I’ve ever seen, where the clocks at the Kohl Center were out of sync so a Ryan Evans tying three pointer in overtime was disallowed. That was the second straight home loss, and the Badgers went on to lose at Michigan to make it three in a row. I guess they’re not as good as we thought they were. At this point, losses like these just feel like par for the course, like I almost feel numb to them. I don’t know, maybe it’s from growing up a Red Sox fan.

The BCS standings came out Sunday and 6-0 Wisconsin is 6th, which really isn’t too much of a surprise, despite the fact that they’re 4th in both human polls. The computer polls have some completely screwy results, however:

#6 in the Sagarin

#10 in the Anderson and Hester (behind South Carolina)

#8 in the Billingsley Report (behind Oregon)

#14 in the Colley Matrix (behind South Carolina, Houston, Penn State, and Michigan)

#12 in the Wolfe (behind Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and 5-2 Auburn)

#17 in the Massey! (behind Arkansas, Virginia Tech, 4-2 Texas A&M, 4-2 Texas, South Carolina, Oregon, 5-2 Auburn, Penn State, and Nebraska) Yes, Wisconsin is ranked behind Nebraska in this system. Apparently beating them 48-17 was not convincing. It’s really comforting to know that there’s an objective system out there that doesn’t rely on data that is so obviously deceptive like a head to head meeting.

Although it will certainly be worthwhile to follow the BCS standings, there’s really nothing we can do about it. Wisconsin has to go undefeated and somehow hope that one of the winners of LSU/Alabama and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State lose a game. Otherwise, it ain’t gonna happen. Which is why Michigan State is now the biggest game of the year. Sparty is getting some national attention after beating up previously undefeated Michigan. They now at least have a reputation (deserved or not) for having a good defense, although Notre Dame beat them 31-13 earlier in the year. The game is on the road in East Lansing in prime time on ESPN and College Game Day will be there, so it’s vital to make a big impression. We’ve gotta go for 50.

Wisconsin’s offense so far has been as good or better than advertised. Russell Wilson is truly phenomenal with a good team around him. He’s got great touch, a strong arm, and is a much faster runner than I realized. The offense has also been very healthy so far. The O-line has been fabulous and Montee Ball has been great at running back. James White has been a bit up and down, but was solid last week against Indiana. Wide receiver Nick Toon sat out last week against Indiana with a sore foot, the same one that was surgically repaired in the off season, but all indications are that he will be back in East Lansing. The Badgers have beaten all six opponents by at least 31 points.

Defensively the Badgers are much more difficult to judge, just because they’re always so far ahead. The eyeball test says it’s been improving. There haven’t been many missed tackles, they’re pressuring the quarterback, and they’re creating turnovers. I like the unit’s aggressiveness. There have been more serious health issues on defense, too, both in the secondary and on the defensive line. DT Patrick Butrym injured his ankle against Indiana and his status is unclear. He would be a huge loss for the MSU game. Again, it’s been very difficult to judge, but they did allow just seven points to Northern Illinois, who has scored 40 or more in every other game.

Another factor defensively is Kirk Cousins, MSU’s quarterback. The Badgers have not yet faced a classic pocket passer like Cousins this year, and the personnel and injuries indicate the Badgers’ weak spot is in the secondary. MSU has actually been pretty balanced offensively, so this should be a good test all around. MSU is also a cheap and dirty team, with several ugly personal fouls in the Michigan game. They had 13 penalties for 124 yards vs. Michigan and 12 penalties against Notre Dame. And they started the smack talking very early this week.

The big problem Wisconsin has is that the B1G sucks. Horrible, awful, dreadful. Michigan State is ranked #16 in the BCS right now, but I worry that even if Wisconsin wins big, the talk will be less about how good Wisconsin is, but how bad the Big Ten is. Again, there’s nothing the Badgers can do about it. It just makes it even more imperative that they win in a rout. Badgers 52-17.

We’ve finally arrived at the much-anticipated Nebraska week, Nebraska’s first Big Ten conference game (next week they’re at home for Ohio State). A quick check of Stub Hub today found tickets available from $200 to $5,000. Big game. ESPN College Game Day will be in Madison and it’s a prime time, 8:00 Eastern start on ABC with Uncle Brent Musberger.

The Badgers are ranked #7, Huskers #8. Nebraska is currently #8 in the nation in rushing offense. QB Taylor Martinez, 6-1 200 lbs., has averaged 105.2 yards per game and I-Back Rex Burkhead, 5-11 210 lbs., is at 105.0 yards per game. Wisconsin is ranked #22 in rush defense, but they’ve stopped running quarterbacks twice so far in Northern Illinois’ Chandler Harnish and South Dakota’s Dante Warren. Wyoming and Washington both managed to slow down Martinez’s running (combined 29-120, 2 TD) but Burkhead ran wild against them.

If Wisconsin has a weakness, it’s in the secondary, but Martinez has not shown he can exploit it. The Huskers have averaged just 167 yards per game through the air against Tennessee-Chattanooga, Fresno State, Washington and Wyoming and Martinez has been just 10-21 in each of the last two games.

Offensively, Wisconsin has been stellar so far against weak competition, while Nebraska’s Blackshirt defense has been surprisingly weak, allowing 29 points to Fresno State and 38 to Washington.

Nebraska leads the nation in kickoff returns behind Ameer Abdullah and they are also solid in the rest of the special teams. Wisconsin has had few punts, but Brad Nortman has been solid when called upon. Kyle French continues to kick field goals for the injured Philip Welch and he is 2-4, with both misses from beyond 50 yards.

I’m calling a rout. It’ll be Russell Wilson’s first chance to shine in prime time for the Badgers and an opportunity for him to get into the Heisman race and get Wisconsin into the national title discussion. It’s time to show the nation if we belong with LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma. It’ll be Badgers 52-24.

The Badgers have certainly looked impressive so far, beating UNLV 51-17 and then shutting out Oregon State 35-0 last week. The only significant injury to this point has been junior cornerback Devin Smith, who was lost for the year early in the Oregon State game. Depth in the secondary could quickly become an issue. The next backups at corner are all freshmen or redshirt freshmen. Something to watch.

Next up is Northern Illinois at Soldier Field in Chicago. Surprisingly, ticket sales have been pretty slow and officials are expecting just 40,000 at the game. Tickets are apparently very expensive — $90, $75, and $60.

Northern Illinois presents a significant challenge — a legitimate quarterback. Chandler Harnish is really good, and his stats make him sound like a Russell Wilson who just runs more. In week one’s 49-26 dismantling of Army, Harnish ran 11 times for 80 yards and a touchdown and through the air was 12-19 for 195 yards and 5 TDs. Last week was kind of a shocker, though. Northern Illinois were 6.5 point favorites on the road at Kansas and lost, 45-42. Harnish was 27-33 for 315 and 2TDs, and ran for 89 yards and 3 TDs. Kansas got the game winning touchdown pass on fourth down with 9 seconds left. So it looks like the Huskies will be able to score on virtually anyone but will struggle defensively. The Badgers will need another huge game from the two-headed rushing attack of Montee Ball and James White and continued efficient, mistake-free quarterback play from Russell Wilson. The Badgers are 16.5 point favorites, so I’ll go with 52-35 for my score.

It should be an entertaining game — it’s too bad it’s not on TV. Anywhere. Since it’s a Northern Illinois home game, and the MAC has an agreement with ESPN, the Big Ten Network is unable to carry it and the “ESPN family of networks” has other games they’re showing. It will apparently be shown on ESPN3. It’s a 3:30 Eastern start.

In other NCAA news, The Atlantic has a huge story about the NCAA titled “The Shame of College Sports.” It’s written by Taylor Branch, a Pulitzer Prize-winning civil rights historian, so when he says the NCAA gives off “whiff of the plantation,” he knows what he’s talking about. He attacks the notions of “amateurism” and “student-athletes” as basically sham concepts with no legal definition used by universities to exploit the skills of their athletes. The argument the NCAA has used is that their “student-athletes” have no right to due process because they essentially have no rights at all. Yikes. The piece doesn’t really present new information or arguments, but I’ve never seen the issue examined in such depth and by such an esteemed reporter. It really helps that he’s not a sports guy.

Collegefootballnews.com released its 2011 Wisconsin preview this week.  Written by the excellent Pete Fiutak, who is a must-read during the season, the article challenges Bret Bielema’s team to take the next step to the consistently elite level of college football.  It begins: “Wisconsin, your opportunity is now.  This is when it’s time to become a true superpower.”

Fiutak foresees big years from senior wide receiver Nick Toon and sophomore linebacker Chris Borland.  Toon, at 6-3, 213 lbs., will be getting long looks from NFL scouts this year.  He had numerous injury problems last year and has yet to have a consistently strong season.  Borland dislocated his shoulder early last season after a superb freshman year.

The biggest question mark will be on the defensive line.  Even with JJ Watt last year, the Badgers were just 91st in the nation in tackles for loss. The pressure will be on defensive tackles Patrick Butrym and Jordan Kohout to both stay healthy and anchor the line, especially against strong running teams like Northern Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State and Ohio State.

Quarterback Russell Wilson comes in with a reputation for ball security based on his freshman season, when he set the NCAA record for consecutive passes without an interception.  However, Fiutak points out that he threw 14 interceptions last year and 25 over the last two years.  Of course, that was for NC State, which had a terrible offensive line and virtually no running game.

The schedule is good early, tough late.  Of the first six games, all are at home except Northern Illinois at neutral site Soldiers Field, although Wisconsin support will be overwhelming there.  The out of conference slate is UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, and South Dakota, and then the Big Ten opener is against Nebraska in prime time at Camp Randall.  After an open date and then Indiana at home, the Badgers have a brutal stretch where they are on the road for four of the next five weeks — at Michigan State, at Ohio State, home for Purdue, at Minnesota, at Illinois.  And oh yeah, they finish at home against Penn State.

For a reminder, the Leaders Division is Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin.  The Ohio State game will obviously be huge for the division title, as well as the finale against the Nittany Lions.  The Badgers could be 6-0 heading into Oct. 29 in Columbus, and if they don’t win that game, they probably won’t win the division.  Not making the conference championship game could make it very difficult to get an at large BCS berth, too.  That game is also in prime time and will be a revenge game for the Buckeyes, as last year’s matchup was the only game that tOSU didn’t need to vacate because of Jim Tressel hiding known NCAA violations.  The Bucks are also fortunate enough to have an open date the week before the game.

Fiutak concludes that the season will be a success if the Badgers get back to the BCS.  He thinks an undefeated season is too much to ask, but 10-2 or 11-1 is very possible.  I obviously have to agree, but there are a lot of land mines out there this year.  Nebraska, at Mich. St., at Ohio St., and Penn St. at home are all brutal.  A lot of things went right for Wisconsin last year, and those things tend to return to the mean.  They actually deserved to lose to Arizona State, they barely beat Iowa, and they beat a terrible San Jose State team by less than two touchdowns.  Of course, at the end of the regular season they may have been the best team in the nation.  They need to use the Rose Bowl loss to TCU as motivation and get strong play from Wilson, and there’s a chance the defense could be a very powerful surprise.

Fiutak concludes: “A third straight double-digit win season, another trip to a BCS game, and another huge year for the Badgers should all be there for the taking. Now it’s time to get used to the role of being big-time, and now it’s time for the expectations to be sky-high on a regular basis.

“Now it’s time to be a consistent superpower.”

50 days until kickoff.

Former North Carolina State star quarterback Russell Wilson is giving up on baseball and will use his final year of collegiate eligibility at Wisconsin.  In a vicious (but accurate) shot at the ACC, Wilson said he wanted to play “big time college football.”

Wilson started all three of his years at NC State and was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in the fourth round of the 2010 draft.  He was struggling mightily for the Single A Asheville Tourists, hitting .228 with 82 strikeouts in 183 at bats.  He had to return a portion of his $250,000 signing bonus, but a Rockies spokesman said he would be welcomed back if he chooses.

Wilson’s decision came down to baseball, Auburn, or Wisconsin.  He graduated from NC State in three years and therefore is allowed to transfer without sitting out a year.  He is apparently also taking advantage of a graduate student exception where a student-athlete can transfer without sitting out by signing up for a graduate course not offered by his current school.

Wilson is a mobile quarterback and a playmaker who has a reputation for not making many mistakes.  He had a 76-26 TD-INT ratio at NC State and by all accounts is very intelligent and will be able to pick up the offense quickly.  It appears that the Badgers’ biggest hole has been filled in a big way.  Plus, with the Badgers’ running attack, he won’t be asked to do nearly as much as he was previously.

Numerous analysts are saying Wisconsin is now the Big Ten or at least the Leaders Division favorite, and some are saying the Badgers are now a national title contender.  Dave Curtis of the Sporting News has a very interesting article arguing that Wilson represents the continuation of a Big Ten power shift from Ohio State to Wisconsin.  The upcoming football season just got a whole lot more interesting.  Relevant dates:

Thurs. Sept. 1 — opening game vs. UNLV at Camp Randall

Oct. 1, 8 PM — Nebraska at Camp Randall, Big Ten opener

Oct. 22, 8 PM — at Michigan State

Oct. 29, 8 PM — at Ohio State

Nov. 26, regular season finale – Penn State at Camp Randall

Iowa City, Iowa.  Evanston, Illinois.  Madison, Wisconsin.  Ann Arbor, Michigan.  State College, Pennsylvania.  And Piscataway, New Jersey?  Are you kidding me?  The established Big Ten cities are destinations, quaint Midwestern towns suggesting intellectualism, camaraderie, beautiful architecture, and dynamic campuses within vibrant urban areas.  Rutgers is largely a commuter school, suggesting not a destination, but a place one must endure and escape from.  New Jersey is New York’s septic system.

Let’s talk accents.  The Minnesota and Wisconsin accents are cute, almost lovable.  WiscAHNsin is beloved by Sconnies and East Coasters alike.  The Minnesota accent became a countrywide phenomenon in the movie Fargo.  The New Jersey accent, on the other hand, makes me want to smash someone in the face with a baseball bat.  It is all about anti-intellectualism, the celebration of ignorance, spray-on tans, big hair, and loud, obnoxious, belligerent people.

Rutgers would boast the cast of MTV’s The Jersey Shore.  Mike ‘The Situation’ and Snooki would be celebrated guests at sporting events.  In basketball, they are 5-11 in the Big East conference this year, 15-14 overall.  In the previous five years, their conference records are 2-16, 3-15, 3-13, 7-9, and 2-14.  Overall records over the same time period are 11-21, 11-20, 10-19, 19-14, and 10-19.  That will really increase the conference’s prestige.  Their basketball arena, the Rutgers Athletic Center, was built in 1977 and seats 8,000.  Their football program had a good year in 2006, finishing 5-2 in conference and 11-2 overall.  They’ve had one winning conference record since then.  They were 4-3, 7-5 in 2005 and had losing records 2002-2004.  U.S. News and World Report’s 2009 rankings of public schools places Rutgers behind Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, and Minnesota.  This is far from a seamless fit.  Another argument is that the Big Ten wants to open up the New York media market.  New York sports fans follow Rutgers?  Really?  I mean, really?  More than Syracuse?  Really?

Unfortunately, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney is from South Orange, New Jersey.  Given his keen insights in the past, this is probably as good as done.  But Piscataway, New Jersey will make Urbana/Champaign and East Lansing look like Berkeley and Austin.

Wisconsin hockey hosts Michigan outside at Camp Randall Stadium today, televised by the Big Ten Network at 6:00 eastern.  Michigan is ranked #19 in the country, Wisconsin is #3, and the Badgers hope to avenge a 3-2 loss earlier in the season in Ann Arbor.  This is actually a big game for the PairWise rankings.  The forecast for Madison is 27 degrees and cloudy, downright balmy for early February in Madtown.

Michigan and Wisconsin also meet today in basketball in Ann Arbor.  Wisconsin struggled to win at the Kohl Center earlier in the season, and has had all kinds of trouble on the road. Vegas has the game as a pick ‘em.

Football signing day was this week and it looks like Wisconsin had a pretty typical class, no blue chip standouts, but a lot of solid, coachable players.  They hit the defensive line pretty hard to build depth there, and have a couple of players who may be able to contribute next year, one defensive tackle (Beau Allen) and a safety (Frank Tamokloe).  The precise scientific measurements of recruiting classes by the “experts” have Wisconsin’s class ranked #33 by Scout.com and #86 by Rivals.com.

The Sporting News released an early 2010 football preseason rankings and has Wisconsin 10th.  Matt Hayes also has an article arguing that Wisconsin will enter 2010 with the most momentum in the country.  Juicy quote: “Now with a little luck and championship karma, and some old-fashioned Wisconsin Crawl Ball spit and polish, the Badgers may not only win the Big Ten for the first time since 1999—they may just play for it all next January in Phoenix.”

Craziness at USC.  Pete Carroll is out and Lane Kiffin is in.  Lane Kiffin?  Is this somehow a race to the bottom for the Los Angeles schools?  Rick Neuheisel at UCLA and now Lane Kiffin at USC.    The battle for the sleaziest coach.  I can’t imagine these two attention whores vying for media attention against each other.  Apparently Kelvin Sampson doesn’t coach football.

I’m actually not that surprised about Pete Carroll.  I figured he would give the NFL one more shot, and he’s now 58 years old, so this is probably it.  I know he’s king of the campus and all that at USC, but these guys have massive egos and he is widely considered a failure in the NFL, even though his record as a head coach is a fairly respectable 33-31.  He doesn’t want to be known as just a great college coach, so he’s giving it one more try.  At least this time he’s on the west coast, so maybe it will go better for him.

Interesting 2010 Big 10 out-of-conference games:

Illinois: vs. Missouri 9/4, at Fresno State 12/4

Indiana: only has two out of conference games scheduled so far, and only 10 games overall. 

Iowa: vs. Iowa State 9/11, at Arizona 9/18

Michigan: vs. UConn 9/4, at Notre Dame 9/11, vs. UMass 9/18

Michigan State: vs. Florida Atlantic 9/11, vs. Notre Dame 9/18

Minnesota: at Middle Tennessee 9/4, vs. USC 9/18

Northwestern: at Vanderbilt 9/4

Ohio State: vs. Marshall 9/4, vs. Miami (FL) 9/11

Penn State: at Alabama 9/11

Purdue: at Notre Dame 9/4

Wisconsin: at UNLV 9/4, vs. San Jose State 9/11, vs. Arizona State 9/18

Unfortunately, the college football season is now over.  It’s such a short season.  The “National Championship Game” ended up being kind of anticlimactic with Colt McCoy’s injury, but we can now look at each conference’s bowl performance.

Overall conference bowl records:

Mountain West 4-1

Big East 4-2

SEC 6-4

Big Ten 4-3

Big 12 4-4

WAC 2-2

Sun Belt 1-1

Independent 1-0

ACC 3-4

Conference USA 2-4

Pac 10 2-5

MAC 1-4

Of course, there are so many bowl games that a lot of mediocre teams get in and therefore skew the results, so let’s look at the top of each league, the top four teams in each league’s conference standings.

Records of top 4 teams in each conference:

Big Ten 4-0 (#8 Ohio State, #10 Iowa, #11 Penn State, #24 Wisconsin)

Mountain West 3-1 (#3 TCU, #15 BYU, #23 Utah, Air Force)

SEC 3-1 (#1 Alabama, #5 Florida, #13 LSU, Ole Miss)

Big 12 2-2 (#2 Texas, #20 Nebraska, #21 Oklahoma State, Texas Tech)

Big East 2-2 (#4 Cincinnati, #17 Pitt, #18 West Virginia, Rutgers)

ACC 2-2 (#9 Georgia Tech, #12 Virginia Tech, #14 Miami, Clemson)

Pac 10 0-4 (#7 Oregon, #22 Arizona, #16 Oregon State, #19 Stanford)

It looks like the top of the Big Ten was better than everyone else, but maybe they lucked into a cupcake schedule.

Conference records vs. ranked teams

Big Ten 4-0 (beat #7 Oregon, #9 Georgia Tech, #13 LSU, #14 Miami)

SEC 2-1 (beat #2 Texas, #4 Cincinnati, lost to #11 Penn State)

Mountain West 1-1 (beat #16 Oregon State, lost to #6 Boise State)

Big 12 1-1 (beat #22 Arizona, lost to #1 Alabama)

Big East 0-1 (lost to #5 Florida)

ACC 0-2 (lost to #10 Iowa, lost to #24 Wisconsin)

Pac 10 0-3 (lost to #8 Ohio State, lost to #20 Nebraska, lost to #15 BYU)

So,

The Big Ten had 4 ranked teams and they went 4-0 against other ranked teams.

The SEC had 3 ranked teams and they went 2-1 against ranked teams.

Mountain West had 3 ranked teams, went 1-1 against ranked teams (won vs. unranked).

Big 12 had 3 ranked teams, went 1-1 against ranked teams (lost vs. unranked).

Big East had 3 ranked teams, went 0-1 vs. ranked, 1-1 vs. unranked.

ACC had 3 ranked teams, went 0-2 vs. ranked, 1-0 vs. unranked.

Pac 10 had 4 ranked teams, went 0-3 vs. ranked, 0-1 vs. unranked. 

It looks pretty clear which conference had the best grouping of teams at the top, and it’s equally clear which was the worst.  The conference power tends to go in cycles, and unquestionably the Big Ten has been down for the last few years.  But this year’s bowl season looks like it could be a sign that things have turned.

239 days until Jump Around.