White Suburban Punk

I have mentioned several times my belief that Liverpool has been unlucky or unfortunate on numerous occasions this season.  I tried to see if there was some way to measure this, and the only obvious one is to use goal differential.

The Pythagorean expectation was invented by the great Bill James for use in baseball to determine a team’s expected winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed.  In James’ formula, Win % = (Runs scored)²/(Runs scored)² +(Runs allowed)².

I tried this formula with the Premiership, but the variations were pretty wild from the actual results.  Using a Poisson model, however, yields much a much more accurate picture.  Thus, the formula I used is: (Goals scored/(Goals scored + Goals allowed)) X available points.  Thus, Liverpool has 53 goals scored and 32 goals allowed this season, and has played 32 games.  (53/(53 + 32)) X (32 games X 3 points available) = 53/85 X 96 = 59.85 expected points.  Liverpool have 54 points, so they are 6 points below their expected results.  A negative difference shows how unfortunate a team has been.  Here are the calculations for all the teams in the Premiership:

The formula may underweigh teams at the bottom of the table, as teams ranked #11 – #20 are all negative except Wigan and there are only two positives in the whole league.  But there are five results that register as spot on, and I haven’t been able to find a variation that seems to work any better.  This at least shows that Liverpool has been the most unfortunate team in the top half of the league based on goal differential and expected results, and the statistics follow what the eye sees.  I’ll try to keep thinking of a better way to measure it.

Liverpool lost at Sunderland in October on the infamous “beach ball goal,” when Sunderland’s Darren Bent scored the game’s only goal on a shot that was deflected by a beach ball that had been thrown onto the field.  Subsequent commentary revealed that the goal should have been disallowed, and it marked one of many instances of poor fortune for Liverpool this season.  In the return leg Sunday at Anfield, Liverpool left no chance for bad luck to influence the game.  In perhaps their most dominating performance of the season, Fernando Torres scored two goals and Liverpool cruised to a 3-0 win, which could easily have been at least 6-0 in the first half alone.

Torres got the scoring started just three minutes in on one of the most amazing goals you’ll ever see, an absolutely magical shot that was perfectly placed in the upper corner of the net.  And that was actually Liverpool’s second quality scoring chance, as Daniel Agger just missed in the first minute off a Steven Gerrard free kick.

All game Liverpool dictated the pace with energy and tempo and crisp, authoritative passes.  It was truly beautiful football, and the players themselves looked like they were having loads of fun, as there were smiles all over the field.  At 32 minutes, Glen Johnson made it 2-0 with a deflected left footed blast off a corner kick, and soon after, Torres knocked a shot off the post and then sent the rebound wide, prompting laughter and smiles from his teammates. At 60 minutes, El Nino put the game away when he calmly settled the ball in the box and knocked it into the corner of the goal.  Torres has now scored 7 goals in his last 4 games.  This was a great example of how much talent is actually on this team when they’re all healthy.  I don’t know if they even need four world class players this summer, as Torres says.

Liverpool sit in sixth place, four points behind fourth place Tottenham, who have one game in hand.  The Europa League round of eight starts Thursday at Benfica, and they play at Birmingham City Sunday in the Premiership.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

The Final Four is now set in basketball and hockey.  Duke managed to flop their way past Baylor and West Virginia exploited Kentucky’s poor outside shooting.  I really don’t like the way Tennessee plays, and I still can’t believe Ohio State let that game get away from them, but Michigan State plays even uglier and somehow got them through to play Butler.  Can I hope for a Butler/West Virginia final?  I guess on principle I should root for the Big Ten, but I really don’t think I can.  Hopefully the crowd will really be behind Butler, given that the campus is just a few miles away, but I suspect a majority of the spectators will not be local.

BC fired Al Skinner, and it apparently happened last week.  This is just bizarre.  When I heard that he had interviewed at St. John’s, I wondered why he hadn’t been fired for expressing interest in another job, like AD Gene DeFilippo did to former football coach Jeff Jagodinski.  Turns out the deed had already been done.  DeFilippo apparently believes that someone else can do better than Skinner.  Two of the last three years have been below .500, but he had 7 NCAA tournament appearances since 2001.  Skinner had success with “weak” recruiting classes and DeFilippo has got to be delusional if he thinks that BC is going to become a destination for blue chip players, even if they are in the ACC.  Just like with the firing of Jagodinski, there is a strange arrogance at work here.  In big time college athletics, BC is just not that great of a job.

In hockey, however, Jerry York does have a great job.  I still can’t figure out who this BC team is, but they keep winning.  They blow a late 6-4 lead to Maine in the Hockey East championship game and then win 7-6.  Then they struggle with a tough Alaska Fairbanks team but beat them 3-1.  Then they score 9 goals against Yale but still have trouble putting them away and win, 9-7.  Maine scored the second-most goals in Hockey East, Fairbanks allowed the second fewest in the CCHA, and Yale led the nation in goals per game, so it appears BC struggles to stop good offensive teams but can score almost at will against the weaker defensive units.  So far in the tournament they have played two flawed teams, but that will not be the case with Miami, who are fourth in the nation in goals scored and second in goals allowed.  Miami has not been setting the world on fire lately, though, which BC does have to its advantage.  Miami lost in the CCHA tournament to Michigan, and then beat Alabama – Huntsville just 2-1, before beating Michigan in double overtime.  Miami has had a great season, but it still would’ve been cool to see Michigan playing at Ford Field.

Wisconsin came out kind of flat in the first period against Vermont but then took over in the second period and ended up scoring three power play goals to win, 3-2.  I hate to say this, but this team’s only real weakness appears to be the goaltender, Scott Gudmanson.  It’s not that he’s bad, he’s just inconsistent.  He definitely made some saves to preserve the game in the third period, but it probably shouldn’t have been that close in the first place.

The regional final against St. Cloud State was a better all-around performance by the team, although there was another soft goal given up by Gudmanson. This time the Badgers came out with fire and took a 3-1 first period lead, chasing the St. Cloud State goalie who had shut them out in the WCHA playoffs.  Each time St. Cloud cut the lead to one goal, the Badgers answered quickly and won, 5-3.

That sets up the ancient rivalry with RIT, the Rochester Institute of Technology, which is not RPI.  RIT won the Atlantic Hockey regular season and tournament, and has been in Division I since 2005.  The have no scholarship players, no draft picks, and no names on their uniforms.  They beat #1 seed Denver, 2-1, which was certainly an upset, but maybe not that much of a surprise.  Denver had been kind of reeling, losing two games in a row for the first time this season in the WCHA playoffs, to North Dakota in the semifinal and then Wisconsin in the third place game.  Coach George Gwozdecky had even benched his top line and had to pull his Hobey Baker finalist goaltender in the Wisconsin game.

But to not only beat UNH, but actually blow them out?  OMG RIT, WTF?  Wisconsin is fortunate for the long break between games, as that should diminish some of RIT’s momentum, but if they score an early goal against the Badgers, look out.  That is the first game of the two national semifinals, at 5:00 Eastern on ESPN2, Thursday, April 8.

Photo from US College Hockey Online

Wow, do these teams hate each other.  After five red cards in the last five games between these teams, Sir Alex Ferguson was crying that Javier Mascherano didn’t receive one Sunday, even though it was highly questionable whether the penalty kick should have even been awarded.  Nevertheless, Liverpool lost, 2-1.  

Fernando Torres opened the scoring just five minutes in on a beautiful combination with Dirk Kuyt and Steven Gerrard.  It was the first goal by a visiting team at Old Trafford in three months.  Just six minutes later, Antonio Valencia went down in the penalty box and Man U was awarded a penalty kick, which was saved by Pepe Reina, but Wayne Rooney deposited the rebound to tie the game.  Not only did Valenica go down shockingly easily from very little contact, but the contact that occurred was outside of the penalty box.  The supposed best referee in the league, Howard Webb, did not even consult with his assistant before awarding the PK and giving Mascherano a yellow card.  Typically, Sir Alex complained that Mascherano should’ve been shown red for interfering with a clear goal scoring chance, even though Jamie Carragher was right there.  Rafa and Sir Alex began yelling at each other on the sideline, and the match continued at a frenzied pace.  Valencia did not earn free kicks for obvious dives later in the half, but he didn’t get yellow cards, either.

With the game tied in the second half, Man U started controlling possession, although their only scoring threats were from Park Ji-sung, who did a good job heading in a nice cross from Darren Fletcher at 60 minutes.  Liverpool was unable to put together any sustained threats and Torres couldn’t put away a couple of difficult chances on bouncing balls in the box late.

Standings:

Club                       Played            Points

Man U                        31                    69

Arsenal                     31                    67

Chelsea                     30                    65

Tottenham              30                    55

Man City                  29                     53

Liverpool                31                     51

Aston Villa             29                     50

A top 4 finish is looking less and less likely, which would be a disaster whose repercussions would last for years.  Liverpool has an easier schedule than the other teams, but only 7 games remaining.  Next is home against thirteenth place Sunderland on Sunday.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

I finally got a chance to watch Liverpool defeat Lille, 3-0, to take the two game home and home series, 3-1 on aggregate.  Fernando Torres was fantastic, scoring two goals and creating several more chances.  Of course, the atmosphere was a bit tense at Anfield as the Reds trailed, 1-0 coming into the game.  But Lucas made a quick run into the box early and was hauled down in an easy call for a PK that was converted by Steven Gerrard.  Liverpool made quick, decisive, confident passes throughout the game, but there were still moments of nervousness.  All too often this season Liverpool fans have seen their hearts broken late in games.  Pepe Reina was forced to make a great save in the 33rd minute off an explosive attack, and Lille created some other chances, but Liverpool pretty much carried the play.  Early in the second half, Torres got his first on a long pass from Ryan Babel, who got another start, to make it 2-0.  Of course, with the away goal rule, it was still far from over, and things got a bit awkward for a while, as Liverpool seemed to debate between defending and going for the third goal to put it away.  The crowd was clearly nervous, too, but finally in the 89th minute Dirk Kuyt fed Gerrard, whose shot was saved, but Torres got the rebound to end it.  After this game, Liverpool had scored 7 goals in their last 2 games with Manchester United next.

Diego Maradona was in the crowd.  He was watching his Argentinian players Javier Mascherano and Emilio Insua.  The third Argentinian national that plays for Liverpool, Maxi Rodriguez, is ineligible for European play because he came over in the January transfer window.

The draw for the round of eight in the Europa League took place Friday, and Liverpool drew Benfica, who knocked them out of the Champions League in 2006.  The first leg is Thursday, April 1, in Portugal.  The winner will get the Valencia/Atletico Madrid winner.

Albert Riera was suspended by Liverpool after giving an interview less than 24 hours before the Lille game in which he called the team a “sinking ship.”  He was also whining about playing time.  Great timing, classy guy.  I never liked him, and to me, Ryan Babel is far more effective playing on the left than Riera ever was.  Today’s news is that Riera has been sold to CSKA Moscow for 6 million pounds.  Addition by subtraction, plus they get some money (which better be used on players this summer).  Buh bye, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Yes, this shot went in

Wisconsin was beaten by the better team Sunday.  They were out of it from the opening tip, as Cornell raced out to 16-4 lead 5 1/2 minutes into the game.  At that point, Cornell had four missed field goals but had four offensive rebounds and Wisconsin’s Keaton Nankivil had just picked up his second foul.  Nankivil finished the game with no points and two rebounds in just five minutes.  The Badgers closed to within 24-21, but that was as close as it got.  It was 43-31 at the half, and Wisconsin had 6 turnovers, 5 by Trevon Hughes.  In a game in which Hughes had to play great, we got the bad Trevon instead. He’s been a good soldier for his four years, and has definitely improved a lot, but he remained maddeningly inconsistent, even in his senior year.  It’s Jordan Taylor’s team to run now, and Jon Leuer will be the clear star.  Next year’s team will go as far as he takes them. 

Other than the Badger game, the tournament has been truly outstanding.  It’s too bad about Kalin Lucas, but the end of the Michigan State/Maryland game was incredible.  Ohio State also looked strong, and Purdue landed the last punch in their brawl with Texas A&M.  Maybe the Big Ten wasn’t so bad, after all, with two round two wins vs. ACC and one vs. Big 12.  Five of the final 16 teams are from non-BCS conferences (Northern Iowa, Butler, Xavier, Cornell, and St. Mary’s), plus #11 seed Washington is still alive.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Conference Breakdown:

                          Round 1                   Round 2                                         

Big Ten               4-1                              3-1

Big 12                  5-2                              2-3

ACC                     4-2                               1-3

Big East              4-4                               2-2

SEC                      2-2                               2-0

NCAA Hockey Tournament

The field was picked Sunday morning and Michigan kept their 20 year streak alive by winning the CCHA tournament.  Wisconsin plays Vermont in St. Paul, with the winner getting the St. Cloud State/Northern Michigan winner.  Michigan is in Ft. Wayne playing tough Bemidji State (who will join the WCHA next year), with the winner playing Miami/Ala. Huntsville.  So, Miami.  Cornell gets to haunt me in another sport by playing UNH, with the winner getting Denver/RIT in Albany, and BC plays Alaska Fairbanks in Worcester, with the winner getting North Dakota/Yale.  The Fighting Sioux are on one of their patented late season hot streaks, winning the WCHA tournament as the 5 seed.  Wisconsin got shut out by St. Cloud after their goalie stood on his head in the semifinal, and then beat the snot out of Denver in the third place game.

The games are Friday/Saturday and Saturday/Sunday, and most are on ESPNU.  Some of the listings say they’re on ESPNU HD, but I don’t have an HD ESPNU channel on Direct TV.  Maybe something will happen this week?  Yeah, right.

I still have to get caught up on soccer.  Liverpool beat Lille to advance in the Europa League, but lost to Man United at Old Trafford on Sunday.

Photo from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

I thought the tournament was supposed to be fun.  It had been up until this game, which was excrutiating.  Jon Leuer played great throughout, and definitely converted Clark Kellogg to his fan club.  Trevon Hughes had an excellent first half, but he started doing his dribble too much, drive, and throw up a wild shot that doesn’t have a prayer in the second half.  I expected a much better team performance from the Badgers coming off their worst game of the season vs. Illinois in the Big Ten tourney.  Wofford hit their first 8 shots of the second half, but to their credit, the Badgers stayed poised.  Leuer was truly awesome, especially at the end.  He hit the go ahead jumper with 17 seconds left, caused Wofford to turn it over on their next possession, and then hit both free throws to win it with 4 seconds left.  The Badgers had just 4 turnovers for the game, but also just 3 assists. 

Cornell is next.  Their strong perimeter shooting could spell the end for Wisconsin, although I still think the Badgers are due to play a great game.  I thought it was going to come today, but it didn’t, so either it’s about to happen or they’re just not that good.

“Up above Cayuga’s waters, there is an awful smell,

Some say it is Cayuga’s waters, others say it is Cornell.”

ON WISCONSIN!

Big Star’s Alex Chilton died yesterday.

With springtime and baseball right around the corner, the best four days in sports are upon us.  Wisconsin got a #4 seed, probably deserved.  I figured they would get a #5 or #6 because they usually get disrespected by the committee.  They should get by Wofford, but the Temple/Cornell winner could be trouble.  Especially Cornell, as Temple is pretty weak offensively.  If they somehow win that, I honestly think they could give Kentucky problems.  The Badgers struggle against teams that shoot well, especially from the perimeter, which is what makes Cornell a tough matchup.  But Kentucky doesn’t do that well.  Everyone talks about Kentucky’s youth, and sure, they turn it over and don’t make free throws like a young team, but I think the real factor with them is that they’ve haven’t played anybody.  Their best three games out of conference were North Carolina, Connecticut, and Louisville, and let’s face it, the rest of the SEC really wasn’t that good.

For today’s games, I think Northern Iowa/UNLV and San Diego State/Tennessee will be close in the Midwest.  I like UTEP over Butler (12/5) but I’m not getting on the Murray State bandwagon against Vandy.  I also like BYU to make a deep run.  Those games are in the West region.  In today’s East games, I like Texas over Wake Forest and Washington over Marquette.  That’s a tough one, as I really like Marquette, but they just have no size and Washington is hot.  In the South, Richmond/St. Mary’s should be a great one, and I like the winner to take out Villanova Saturday.  I think Baylor will make a deep run, and Old Dominion will beat Notre Dame.

Speaking of ND, the great Charles Pierce of the Boston Globe (and Marquette grad) says that Digger Phelps is despised.  And no one says it better.  Not exactly surprising news, anyway.

Tonight is the Penguins at the Bruins.  Seemingly everyone is calling for blood revenge for the hit on Marc Savard by Matt Cooke.  I sincerely hope it doesn’t get too ugly.

“Children by the million sing for Alex Chilton, when he comes around,  They sing, I’m in love, what’s that song?  I’m in love, with that song.”

Liverpool crushed Portsmouth (“the Premiership’s basket case”) at Anfield on Monday, 4-1.  The game was shown in marvelous high definition on ESPN2 here in the states, and they must be complimented for some truly impressive camera work on the replays.  Glen Johnson, Daniel Agger, Alberto Aquilani, Maxi Rodriguez, and Ryan Babel got starts, while Lucas and Dirk Kuyt were left on the bench.  The Anfield crowd was very subdued at the start of the game, which is understandable given the last two games.  The announcers actually mentioned empty seats and it turned out to be the lowest attendance for a Premiership game at Anfield in five years. 

Liverpool was crisp, decisive, and creative right from the start.  Where was this confidence and desire at Lille and Wigan?  I don’t know, but it was great to see.  Hopefully this new-found aggression continues, as every game the rest of the way is essentially a must win now.

After all the strong play to start the game, the first goal was a gift off a giveaway by Portsmouth’s backup goalie scored by Fernando Torres.  Babel scored two minutes later off a pass from Torres, and Aquilani scored his first goal for Liverpool three minutes after that, again off a pass from Torres that Gerrard let through.  Aquilani was fantastic all day, by far his best game.  It’s incredible what he can do when the opposition gives him space to maneuver.  He was confident and aggressive, but it’s still questionable whether he’ll get to play against Manchester United this weekend.

Chances continued through the end of the first half with Liverpool holding the 3-0 lead and continued in the second.  Aquilani beautifully set up Torres’ second goal at 77 minutes and Portsmouth got a late one to avoid the shutout.  How Liverpool possibly lost to these guys in December, I’ll never know.

The one bizarre occurrence on the day was Steven Gerrard throwing a wild forearm at Portsmouth’s Michael Brown at 74 minutes, with Liverpool leading 3-0.  He was immediately replaced by Rafa Benitez and the referee clearly saw it, as he spoke to Gerrard right afterwards.  The FA has since said that no action will be taken against him, but he was pretty fortunate not to get a red card, which would have forced him to miss the tilt at Old Trafford.

In other news, goalie Pepe Reina looks set to sign a contract extension, which is great news.  Fernando Torres said that his future depends on Liverpool aggressively attacking the transfer market this summer, stating that the club needs to recruit “four or five top-class players to compete.”  The only way that will happen is with new ownership, which fans can only pray for.  Speaking of, reports indicate that a 100 million pound investment bid was made by a group out of New York.  It’s expected that if they get new ownership, Rafa will be gone, while Rafa is also supposedly growing increasingly frustrated with Tom Hicks and George Gillett, so if they stay as owners, he may leave voluntarily.  Whatever the truth is, big changes could be on the way.

This is a tough stretch of games for the Reds.  They play the second leg of the Europa League Round of 16 at Anfield vs. Lille on Thursday, trailing 1-0, and then travel to Old Trafford Sunday for the much anticipated tilt with Manyoo.  Liverpool won, 4-1, at Old Trafford last year, but of course finished second to them in the standings.

Photo from ESPN Soccernet

Badger hoops played an almost impossibly bad game and still only lost by four points to Illinois.  The Badgers shot 28.6%, and that was after hitting a bunch of prayers late, so it was actually must worse than that.  Truly unreal, but at least maybe they got the bricks out of their system for a while.  I was really down on Illinois after Sunday’s blowout, but apparently they’re going to make the tournament, although there was another example of a player acting like a little brat in the first half when Dominique Keller ignored Bruce Weber on the bench.  At least Weber didn’t let him back into the game like he did with McCamey last week.  I don’t see high character guys on that team.

I’m not even going to go over the atrocious numbers from this game, but I’ll just reiterate: it’s almost impossible to shoot as bad as the Badgers did in this game.  There were at least five missed layups in the first half alone.  They couldn’t even make free throws, for crying out loud.  There’s no reason to think that this is a trend or that the Badgers have been exposed.  This was an extreme outlier of a performance, and luckily it doesn’t matter.  Much.  They’re probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed now, and there’s no chance of playing the first two games in Milwaukee. 

How does John Beilein not at least have somebody harassing Evan Turner?  With 2.2 seconds, you should at least be able to have someone get in his way, make him go around someone.

Badger hockey beat Alaska Anchorage in game 1 of the best of 3 playoffs last night, 4-1, but apparently they didn’t play very well.  It wasn’t on TV, but hopefully the WCHA Final Five will be.

Photo from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel