White Suburban Punk

Craziness at USC.  Pete Carroll is out and Lane Kiffin is in.  Lane Kiffin?  Is this somehow a race to the bottom for the Los Angeles schools?  Rick Neuheisel at UCLA and now Lane Kiffin at USC.    The battle for the sleaziest coach.  I can’t imagine these two attention whores vying for media attention against each other.  Apparently Kelvin Sampson doesn’t coach football.

I’m actually not that surprised about Pete Carroll.  I figured he would give the NFL one more shot, and he’s now 58 years old, so this is probably it.  I know he’s king of the campus and all that at USC, but these guys have massive egos and he is widely considered a failure in the NFL, even though his record as a head coach is a fairly respectable 33-31.  He doesn’t want to be known as just a great college coach, so he’s giving it one more try.  At least this time he’s on the west coast, so maybe it will go better for him.

Interesting 2010 Big 10 out-of-conference games:

Illinois: vs. Missouri 9/4, at Fresno State 12/4

Indiana: only has two out of conference games scheduled so far, and only 10 games overall. 

Iowa: vs. Iowa State 9/11, at Arizona 9/18

Michigan: vs. UConn 9/4, at Notre Dame 9/11, vs. UMass 9/18

Michigan State: vs. Florida Atlantic 9/11, vs. Notre Dame 9/18

Minnesota: at Middle Tennessee 9/4, vs. USC 9/18

Northwestern: at Vanderbilt 9/4

Ohio State: vs. Marshall 9/4, vs. Miami (FL) 9/11

Penn State: at Alabama 9/11

Purdue: at Notre Dame 9/4

Wisconsin: at UNLV 9/4, vs. San Jose State 9/11, vs. Arizona State 9/18

Still trying to digest the stunning news about Mark McGwire.  The thing is, why would this possibly improve his chances of getting into the Hall of Fame?  Doesn’t make any sense at all.  He had several pretty bad years, and also lost some to injury.  He also had some phenomenal years, but it looks like they were steroid-aided.  His admission that he used them shouldn’t have any impact whatsoever.  He had something like 23% of the vote this past year, and I don’t see how it should improve from there.  I say he’s out.

So now there’s news that Daisuke Matsuzaka hid an injury from the Red Sox last year.  Great news.  He apparently injured his leg training for the World Baseball Classic and that led him to alter his mechanics and injure his shoulder.  Obviously, the Sox were aware of the shoulder issue, but not the leg.  I don’t think the relationship between Daisuke and the Sox brass can really get any more strained over this, but I think the Sox just want to forget about last year as far as Daisuke is concerned.  Wipe the slate clean, and make sure he comes into camp in premium shape.  Unfortunately, it looks like this is yet another lesson that needs to be drilled into the pitcher’s head — don’t hide injuries!  He says he did it because he didn’t want to make excuses.  But he sucked and once he got sent down . . . Calm down, just forget last year.  He’s supposedly in good shape this offseason, working out in Arizona at the Athletes Performance Center or whatever it’s called.  I heard a radio interview with Dustin Pedroia where he said Daisuke looks good and they were planning to go out to dinner.

Aroldis Chapman signs with the Reds, which is somewhat surprising, but good for them.  According to the article I read about it, the yankees weren’t even in on the bidding.  Of course, the article also calls the Reds’ rotation “deep”, so that makes me suspicious about everything else.  Anyway, we’ll see how he does.  I saw another report somewhere, I can’t remember where, that called him the “John Rocker of Cuba.”  Handing $30 million to a guy who supposedly has maturity issues and is now in the US for the first time, without family or a support network, is an incredibly risky thing to do.

Jason Bay went to the Mets, too bad for him.  Looks to me like his agent really screwed this one up.  He bluffed, and Theo called him on it.  Then Seattle didn’t materialize for him, and he’s stuck in a dysfunctional organization and a huge ballpark, in a city he doesn’t seem that crazy about.  The Mets’ offer was on the table for at least a month before he signed it, after all.  Too bad, he seemed like a good guy.

I very much like the Adrian Beltre signing.  I was pretty skeptical until it happened, but the more I learn about the guy, the more I like him.  I really didn’t realize he was that good of a fielder, and he’s got a better bat than I thought.  He played through brutal injuries last year, including a shoulder injury where he couldn’t lift his arm above his head.  But he played.  So no wonder his offensive numbers were awful.  He seems to have a great swing for Fenway, and if he’s healthy, he should be able to hit 20-25 home runs.  And the fans should love him right off the bat just because of his defense.

I also liked the announcement that Jacoby Ellsbury will be playing LF, something I thought should happen when Mike Cameron was signed.  Hopefully it doesn’t bruise his ego too much, but it should really be better for both him and the team.  It minimizes his lack of arm strength and saves his legs.  He’s also been working out in Arizona and supposedly getting stronger, so maybe we’ll see him drive the ball a bit more next year.  He tends to get on streaks where he just slaps at everything and gets nothing but singles.

That’s all I got as we enter the netherworld between the premature end of the Patriots’ season and Spring Training.

The 2000s were a great decade for the New England Patriots, the only period of sustained excellence in franchise history.  Dan Shaughnessy even wrote articles about how Patriots fans were spoiled.  That’s all over now.  It’s a new decade, and now it’s time to see if Bill Belichick can prevent the team from slipping to mediocrity.  They’re clearly not among the elite anymore. 

What started as a tough, ball control team with a great defense early in the decade morphed into the ultimate finesse team at the end of the decade.  The defense is no longer stout, and, with several young players,  its remaking has already begun.  Vince Wilfork is the biggest contractual question this offseason, but it still looks like the team needs more and better talent at both linebacker and in the secondary.

Offensively, Tom Brady was simply awful yesterday, and pretty inconsistent all year.  He was supposedly suffering from rib, finger, and shoulder ailments, and I actually hope that’s the case.  A lot of his passes were ducks yesterday — more were fluttering around than seemed to have the characteristic Brady zip.  Sure, it was a comeback year from the knee injury.  But to get back to being a threat to go to the Super Bowl, this team needs far better play from its quarterback.

There are other issues with the offense.  Laurence Maroney had one carry yesterday.  What will happen with him this offseason?  Wide receiver depth is clearly an issue.  The team really never had a #3 wideout all season.  The Joey Galloway signing was a disaster, but who really could’ve predicted that?  The offensive line has been together for a long time, but it may be remade this offseason.  Stephen Neal may retire, Logan Mankins is a free agent, and Matt Light has seen better days.

Belichick is actually facing a more difficult task now than when he took over the team.  Back then, expectations were low and the region was so starved for a winner that everything was gravy.  And sure, a lot of things broke the right way for the Patriots last decade.  Belichick built a legitimate dynasty here, but it is now crumbling, as they all do.  It will be interesting to see if BB makes any changes to his coaching staff.  The defense didn’t seem as inventive or creative as in years past, and it may be time to get a legitimate offensive coordinator, too.

The team has stockpiled numerous draft picks in the next two drafts, and the next two seasons will be uncapped, too.  The Patriots are entering a crucial period in their history, and it will be a great challenge for Bill Belichick.  But there’s no one I’d rather have in charge.

Unfortunately, the college football season is now over.  It’s such a short season.  The “National Championship Game” ended up being kind of anticlimactic with Colt McCoy’s injury, but we can now look at each conference’s bowl performance.

Overall conference bowl records:

Mountain West 4-1

Big East 4-2

SEC 6-4

Big Ten 4-3

Big 12 4-4

WAC 2-2

Sun Belt 1-1

Independent 1-0

ACC 3-4

Conference USA 2-4

Pac 10 2-5

MAC 1-4

Of course, there are so many bowl games that a lot of mediocre teams get in and therefore skew the results, so let’s look at the top of each league, the top four teams in each league’s conference standings.

Records of top 4 teams in each conference:

Big Ten 4-0 (#8 Ohio State, #10 Iowa, #11 Penn State, #24 Wisconsin)

Mountain West 3-1 (#3 TCU, #15 BYU, #23 Utah, Air Force)

SEC 3-1 (#1 Alabama, #5 Florida, #13 LSU, Ole Miss)

Big 12 2-2 (#2 Texas, #20 Nebraska, #21 Oklahoma State, Texas Tech)

Big East 2-2 (#4 Cincinnati, #17 Pitt, #18 West Virginia, Rutgers)

ACC 2-2 (#9 Georgia Tech, #12 Virginia Tech, #14 Miami, Clemson)

Pac 10 0-4 (#7 Oregon, #22 Arizona, #16 Oregon State, #19 Stanford)

It looks like the top of the Big Ten was better than everyone else, but maybe they lucked into a cupcake schedule.

Conference records vs. ranked teams

Big Ten 4-0 (beat #7 Oregon, #9 Georgia Tech, #13 LSU, #14 Miami)

SEC 2-1 (beat #2 Texas, #4 Cincinnati, lost to #11 Penn State)

Mountain West 1-1 (beat #16 Oregon State, lost to #6 Boise State)

Big 12 1-1 (beat #22 Arizona, lost to #1 Alabama)

Big East 0-1 (lost to #5 Florida)

ACC 0-2 (lost to #10 Iowa, lost to #24 Wisconsin)

Pac 10 0-3 (lost to #8 Ohio State, lost to #20 Nebraska, lost to #15 BYU)

So,

The Big Ten had 4 ranked teams and they went 4-0 against other ranked teams.

The SEC had 3 ranked teams and they went 2-1 against ranked teams.

Mountain West had 3 ranked teams, went 1-1 against ranked teams (won vs. unranked).

Big 12 had 3 ranked teams, went 1-1 against ranked teams (lost vs. unranked).

Big East had 3 ranked teams, went 0-1 vs. ranked, 1-1 vs. unranked.

ACC had 3 ranked teams, went 0-2 vs. ranked, 1-0 vs. unranked.

Pac 10 had 4 ranked teams, went 0-3 vs. ranked, 0-1 vs. unranked. 

It looks pretty clear which conference had the best grouping of teams at the top, and it’s equally clear which was the worst.  The conference power tends to go in cycles, and unquestionably the Big Ten has been down for the last few years.  But this year’s bowl season looks like it could be a sign that things have turned.

239 days until Jump Around.

WSP staff did an analysis of the teams promoted and relegated to and from the English Premier League since the 2001-2002 season.  There are 20 teams in the Premiership and 24 in the League Championship.  Bizarrely, the third highest league is known as League 1, and it also has 24 clubs.  The bottom 3 in the Premiership, clubs finishing in 18th, 19th, and 20th places, are relegated to the League Championship for the next season.  The top 2 in the League Championship are promoted, and the clubs finishing in places 3, 4, 5, and 6 enter a playoff for the third promotion. 

From the 2001-2002 season to the 2007-2008 season (7 years), 21 teams were relegated and 21 promoted.  11 teams were relegated and promoted multiple times, accounting for 31 of the 42 moves.  So it is very common for teams to go constantly go up and down, and consequently it appears very difficult to stay in the Premiership once promoted.  In those 7 seasons, only 7 teams were promoted and remain in the Premiership today, and two of those were just promoted in 2008:

Manchester City (promoted 2002)

Portsmouth (promoted 2003)

Wigan (promoted 2005)

West Ham (promoted 2005)

Sunderland (promoted 2007)

Stoke (promoted 2008)

Hull (promoted 2008) 

6 teams were relegated in those 7 seasons and remain out of the Premiership:

Ipswich (relegated 2002, currently 19th in League Championship)

Leeds (relegated 2004, currently 1st in League 1)

Southampton (relegated 2005, currently 14th in League 1 – suffering from 10 point penalty due to club’s financial troubles)

Sheffield (relegated 2007, currently 7th in League Championship)

Charlton (relegated 2007, currently 3rd in League 1)

Watford (relegated 2007, currently 13th in League Championship)

There were 5 teams that were promoted to the Premiership and lasted more than 2 seasons there, while 11 teams were relegated and did not return for more than 2 seasons. 

Promoted, lasted more than 2 seasons (5):

Manchester City 2002 – present

Portsmouth 2003 – present

Wigan 2005 – present

West Ham 2005 – present

Sunderland 2007 – present

Relegated, lasted more than 2 seasons (11):

Leicester 2004 – present

Wolverhampton 2004 – 2009 (back in Premiership this year)

Ipswich 2002 – present

Derby County 2002 – 2007, relegated again after 2008

Leeds 2004 – present

Norwich 2005 – present

Crystal Palace 2005- present

Southampton 2005 – present

Sheffield 2007 – present

Charlton 2007 – present

Watford 2007 – present

11 teams were promoted and lasted 2 seasons or less: West Brom (3 times), Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Derby County, Leicester, Norwich, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, and Reading.

8 teams were relegated and were back in the Premiership after 2 seasons or less: West Brom (twice), Birmingham (twice), Leicester, West Ham, and Sunderland (twice).

Conclusion: Once promoted, it’s hard to stay in the Premiership, and once relegated, it’s difficult to get promoted again, but a lot of these teams just keep going up and down.  Only 18 teams accounted for all 42 promotions and relegations in the 7 seasons.

Currently, the Premiership standings have West Ham in 17th with 18 points, Bolton in 18th with 18 points, Hull in 19th with 18 points, and Portsmouth in 20th with 14 points.  Of those four, West Ham and Portsmouth were both involved in promotions and relegations in the last 7 years.  The League Championship standings show Newcastle in 1st with 51, West Brom 2nd with 45, Nottingham Forest 3rd with 43, Cardiff City 4th with 37, Leicester 5th with 37, and Swansea 6th with 37.  Just 3 of those teams were involved in promotions and relegations from the Premiership in the last 7 seasons, so maybe there will be a slight changing of the guard this year, as more teams join the fight to get into the top league.  But their chances of staying there are not good.

Here is the raw data by team:

Manchester City – promoted 2002

West Brom – promoted 2002, relegated 2003, promoted 2004, relegated 2006, promoted 2008, relegated 2009

Birmingham – promoted 2002, relegated 2006, promoted 2007, relegated 2008, promoted 2009

Ipswich – relegated 2002

Derby County – relegated 2002, promoted 2007, relegated 2008

Leicester – relegated 2002, promoted 2003, relegated 2004

Portsmouth – promoted 2003

Wolverhampton – promoted 2003, relegated 2004, promoted 2009

West Ham – relegated 2003, promoted 2005

Sunderland – relegated 2003, promoted 2005, relegated 2006, promoted 2007

Norwich – promoted 2004, relegated 2005

Crystal Palace – promoted 2004, relegated 2005

Leeds United – relegated 2004

Wigan – promoted 2005

Southampton – relegated 2005

Reading – promoted 2006, relegated 2008

Sheffield – relegated 2007

Charlton – relegated 2007

Watford – relegated 2007

Stoke City – promoted 2008

Hull - promoted 2008

Burnley – promoted 2009

Newcastle – relegated 2009

Middlesbrough – relegated 2009