White Suburban Punk

Perfect 8-0 on college picks last week, and 8-8 on pro games, all against the spread.  That makes me 38-32 overall on pro games.  On to Turkey Week:

College:

Clemson (-2.5) over SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina has lost three straight and four of five, while Clemson has won six straight and is one of the hottest teams in the country.  Stephen Garcia still makes a lot of stupid decisions that tear Steve Spurrier’s heart out.

GEORGIA TECH (-7) over Georgia

Georgia blew a halftime lead and lost at home to Kentucky last week, while Georgia Tech has won eight straight and is looking forward to its ACC title game vs. Clemson.

Ole Miss (-7) over MISSISSIPPI STATE

Ole Miss will have something to prove in the Egg Bowl after winning the bizarre LSU game last week.  Mississippi State isn’t going anywhere.

North Carolina (-5.5) over NC STATE

UNC has won four straight, including over Virginia Tech and Miami, while NC State is not going bowling and has lost six of their last seven.

COLORADO (+8) over Nebraska

It’s a rivalry game, at least for Colorado, and they have no hope for a bowl game, so this is it.  This game doesn’t matter in the least to Nebraska, who is waiting to be destroyed by Texas in the Big 12 championship next week.  Plus, Nebraska’s offense is weak, and Colorado has actually showed a little life lately, with the close loss to Oklahoma State.  Dan Hawkins may not even get fired, but that’s because of budget constraints.

Wyoming (+3) over COLORADO STATE

Border war, and Wyoming is coming off a thrilling comeback win against San Diego State.  They become bowl eligible with a win.  Colorado State is 0-6 in the conference and one of the worst teams in FBS.

Marshall (+1) over UTEP

UTEP lost to Rice last week, for chrissake, and has completely fallen apart down the stretch.  Marshall beat a pretty good SMU team and is still alive for a bowl bid.

SOUTH FLORIDA (+1) over Miami

Miami continues to be inconsistent and has motivation problems, while South Florida considers this to be a big game, and it’s at home.  They’re both going bowling, but Jacory Harris mistakes will cost Miami.

IDAHO (+1) over Utah State

Idaho is at home and needs a win to lock down a bowl bid.  Utah State isn’t going anywhere and their best win was against San Jose State.

NFL:

Green Bay (-11) over DETROIT

The Lions will be without Player of the Week Matthew Stafford, so Daunte Culpepper will start.  The Packers are fourth in the NFL in total offense, while Detroit is last in scoring defense and 31st in total defense.

DALLAS (-14) over Oakland

The Cowboys desperately want to get their offense going, and Oakland will be coming in happy with their upset last week.  Bad combination.

NY Giants (-6) over DENVER

Denver is reeling, having lost four straight, and hasn’t scored an offensive TD in its last two games at home.  It looked like the Giants got untracked last week with the OT win over Atlanta.

ATLANTA (-12.5) over Tampa Bay

The Bucs are in turmoil with their demotion of the defensive coordinator and Atlanta needs a big win at home to turn things around after two straight road losses.

Miami (-3) over BUFFALO

The Dolphins have won two straight close ones, while Buffalo has lost three in a row. 

CINCINNATI (-15) over Cleveland

Bengals were upset last week in Oakland, so they’ll be focused.  Browns had the stupid pass interference to lose to Detroit in a heart breaker.

Carolina (+2.5) over NY JETS

The Jets just won’t shut up, while Carolina has quietly gone 4-3 after losing three straight to begin the year.

Washington (+9) over PHILADELPHIA

‘Skins have been playing terrific defense, while the Eagles have played three straight close games.

ST. LOUIS (+2.5) over Seattle

Although both teams are just playing out the string, St. Louis has lost close ones to New Orleans and Arizona the last two weeks.  Seattle is playing its third straight road game and has looked awful.

Kansas City (+14.5) over SAN DIEGO

The Chiefs have won two straight and look much better than when San Diego blew them out in KC.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Jacksonville

Tough call, but I like the ’49ers.  The Jags have overachieved to reach 6-4, while SF has underachieved to 4-6.  Long road trip for the Jags.

MINNESOTA (-9.5) over Chicago

I keep picking against the Vikings and losing, but there’s no way I’m picking Jay Cutler.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Arizona

Cards are 5-0 on the road, but I guess I believe in Vince Young.  WTF?

Pittsburgh (+2) over BALTIMORE

Both teams are hurting, and it’s a big game for playoff implications.  I still don’t believe in Baltimore.  Their defense isn’t as good as they think it is.

Houston (+2) over INDIANAPOLIS

What the hell.

New England (+2.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Could be a classic, and I’ll never pick against Belichick when his team has a chip on their shoulder.

Despite a 1-0 win over Debrecen in Budapest, Liverpool was eliminated from the Champions League when Fiorentina beat Lyon by the same score.  Liverpool’s goal came early in the game off a tap in by 20 year old David Ngog, after a header in the box by Jamie Carragher.  Glenn Johnson and Fabio Aurelio were able to start after getting the mysterious horse placenta treatment from an alternative medicine woman in Belgrade.  I wonder if she can treat manager Rafa Benitez?  The Reds started out fairly strong in this game, but seemed to get more uninspired as the game wore on, perhaps because they knew Lyon had fallen behind in Florence.  Debrecen actually had two great chances to tie late in the game, but goalie Pepe Reina made excellent saves.

The day began for Liverpool with news that Ryan Babel had conducted an interview with the Liverpool Echo, which was printed on the day of the match, that he wants out of Liverpool and he “does not understand the manager.”  Good riddance.  Why would they ever want to keep him now?  He also complained about the senior players not helping him and only being interested in their own glory.  What a freaking baby.  Maybe the team can get some good money when they get rid of him at the transfer window in January and use it to get someone with some heart.

The Reds had qualified for the knock out stages of the Champions League the last five years, with two finals appearances and one championship.  As third place finishers in their group, they will now join the Europa League knock out stages, where they will almost certainly be favorites to win the competition.  Rafa claims the team will concentrate first on finishing in the top four of the Premiership to ensure Champions League play next season.  They currently sit in seventh place, and will need to leapfrog Man City, Tottenham, and Aston Villa.  Difficult, but certainly not impossible, with five months still to play.  In the aftermath of yesterday’s game, both captain Steven Gerrard and Javier Mascherano vowed to try to win the Europa League.

It is certainly not unprecedented for a so called “big team” to fail to reach the knock out stages.  Manchester United actually finished fourth in their group in 2005 and was out of Europe altogether.  Milan and Bayern Munich have also been relegated to the Europa League (formerly called UEFA Cup) in recent years.

The Reds will try to pick up the pieces this weekend in the Liverpool derby at Everton.  Fernando Torres is still not expected back, but the team does appear to be getting healthier.  The almost unbelievable run of injuries is without question the number one reason for the team’s struggles this fall, and the depth has simply not been enough.

Wrapping up the weekend, Liverpool tied Man City 2-2 at Anfield Saturday.  The Reds got goals from Martin Skrtel and Yossi Benayoun, who returned from what looked like a severe hamstring injury in the previous game.  He received treatment from a woman in Belgrade with horse placenta.  Yes, horse placenta.  Steven Gerrard played the whole game, but he still looks rusty after missing so much time.  Fernando Torres is still out and will miss the Champions League match with Debrecen Tuesday, and probably will miss the Everton derby next weekend.  The Reds need to beat Debrecen and hope Fiorentina does not beat Lyon tomorrow to have any hope of continuing on the Champions League.  They are still seventh in the Premiership.  The World Cup starts in 199 days.

Wisconsin basketball has their first real test of the season tonight at midnight eastern in Hawaii against Arizona.  Remember these were the two last at-large invites to the tournament last year, but both proved they belonged.  Wisconsin is generally picked seventh or eighth in the Big 10, and are not projected to make the tournament field.  However, they have never missed under Bo Ryan and the strength of this year’s team is two senior guards, Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon.  If Jon Leuer becomes the force they were hoping for, I think they’ll be in the mix again.  Unusually, most prognosticators are saying that the Big 10 is strong this year.  It sounds strange when all you hear is Big 10 bashing all the time.

The Sanchize didn’t look to good in Foxboro yesterday.  In fact, he looked absolutely bewildered.  Maybe we can add a Sanchize face.  8-21, 136 yards, 4 interceptions, and 1 fumble.  And I haven’t heard much mouthiness from them since the game, either.  That loss effectively knocked them out of the playoffs so Rex The Mouth Ryan will have to find another way to motivate his team the rest of the year.  Crying failed, what else you got?  Wes Welker was awesome and the defense only gave up 1 score.  The hype for Monday night in New Orleans has already started, and I’ll be interested to see what the line is.

Wisconsin football lost at Northwestern, 33-31, a game I was frightfully afraid of.  I haven’t still haven’t watched it, and I’m not sure if I will.  The Badgers apparently had three possessions to win it and punted once and turned it over twice.  At Hawaii in two weeks, and then wait for the bowl assignment.  They deservedly dropped out of the top 25 in both polls, although it still looks like a New Year’s Day bowl in Florida.  Tennessee would be interesting matchup.

Les Miles completely bungled the clock in LSU’s loss to Ole Miss, and then lied about it after the game.  He claimed he didn’t know who told his QB to spike the ball with 1 second left, but TV cameras showed him making the arm motion.  Plus he let 17 seconds go off the clock before he called a timeout.  It’s hard to believe that national championship was only two years ago, when he blew off Michigan.  Speaking of Michigan, Rich Rod managed to blame Lloyd Carr for his team sucking the last two years, saying that they’ve had bad Februarys the last four years.  The guy just seems like he’s over his head in Ann Arbor.  Jim Harbaugh is a Michigan man, isn’t he?  Although he will probably be considered the favorite for the Notre Dame job after they fire Charlie Weis.  I wonder if Charlie will come back to the Patriots.

I actually went 8-0 on my college picks against the spread, so I would’ve doubled my money if gambling were legal.  But I don’t live in Vegas, so it’s not.  I was actually kind of curious about this, so I did a bit of research.  Here’s what I found out:

Sports betting had been left up to the states until The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992, which effectively outlawed sports betting nationwide, except for a few states.  It passed overwhelmingly in both the House and Senate.  Sports lotteries in Oregon and Delaware were exempt, as were licensed sports pools in Nevada.  Then in 2006, the Security and Accountability for Every Port Act was passed and signed by President Bush, which had an online gambling measure called the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006.  It prohibits the tranfer of funds from financial institutions to illegal internet gambling sites.  The Congressional supporters were Republican Jim Leach of Iowa and Republican Robert Goodlatte of Virginia.  Republicans Bill Frist and Jon Kyl are credited with ensuring passage in the Senate.  The Bush Administration had previously stated that it would not finalize any rules after November 1, 2008, but the final regulations were issued on November 12, 2008 and came into effect on January 19, 2009, the day before President Obama took office.  Democrat Barney Frank introduced a bill in May, 2009 seeking to overturn the gambling aspects of the Act, and he also introduced a bill to delay the implementation of the Act for one year, until December 1, 2010.  Neither have been acted upon.

Last week was the definition of mediocrity.  11-11 on the top 25 college games, 7-8 in pro games, all against the spread.  That makes me 30-24 over the last four weeks in pro, and 20-24-1 over the last two weeks in the college top 25.  So I’m going to try something a little different this week with the college games, just picking a select few.  As always, every pick is against the spread.

College Picks:

SMU (+3.5) over MARSHALL

Marshall was eliminated from the conference title race with a loss to Southern Miss. last week, while SMU is still in the mix after beating UTEP.

North Carolina (+3.5) over BOSTON COLLEGE

This should be a defensive battle, as both offenses frankly suck.  BC was only able to put up 14 points on Virginia last week, while UNC lost to UVA in Chapel Hill early in the season.  North Carolina is coming off a big win over Miami in which the D got four picks.

Iowa State (+13) over MISSOURI

Mizzou played their best game of the year last week, crushing Kansas State 38-12, but they had lost 4 of 5 before that.  Iowa State became bowl eligible with a 17-10 win over Colorado.

Kansas State (+15) over NEBRASKA

This game is for the Big 12 North title and the privelege to get waxed by Texas in the conference championship.  The game is in Lincoln, but Nebraska’s offense is weak.

TEXAS TECH (+4.5) over Oklahoma

Sticking with the awful Big 12, this will be a shootout, and Texas Tech is at home.  Oklahoma destroyed Texas A&M last week, so they’re due for a letdown.  Landry Jones is wildly inconsistent (especially on the road), and Texas Tech is able to pressure the QB.

Army (+2) over NORTH TEXAS

North Texas’ defense is horrible, while Army could go to a bowl with a win this week and over Navy.

Penn State (-3.5) over MICH STATE

Michigan State put up 40 points on Purdue last week but only had 12 first downs, while Penn State’s D has been good against mediocre teams.  Penn State also needs to look impressive to stay alive for an at-large BCS spot, although I really hope that doesn’t happen.

Connecticut (+6) over NOTRE DAME

The humiliating loss to Pitt, all the questions about Charlie Weis’ future, and UConn is coming off a bye.  UConn has had so many heartbreaking losses this year, but they play everyone close.

PRO:

Miami (+3.5) over CAROLINA

I still don’t believe in the Jake Delhomme or the Panthers.  Delhomme should revert to his pick happy self.

Washington (+12) over DALLAS

The Skins showed some life last week beating Denver, while Dallas had a completely uninspired loss at Green Bay.  They should bounce back, but Washington should be able to keep it close.

San Fran (+5.5) over GREEN BAY

The Pack got back with a solid win over the Cowboys, while SF was gifted a win by Jake Cutler.  This should be low-scoring, but the Pack should win at home.

JAX (-8) over Buffalo

It’s always tough to predict what will happen in the first game after a coaching change, but Jacksonville has won 2 straight and seems to be pulling it together, although both wins have been close.  I say they roll through Buffalo’s disarray.

Pittsburgh (-10) over KC

The Steelers are coming off the tough division loss to Cinci, while KC beat Oakland.  Pittsburgh should be able to circle the wagons on the road.  Remember, the Steelers had been really rolling before last week, having won 5 in a row, including wins over San Diego, Minnesota, and Denver.

Seattle (+11) over MINNESOTA

The Seahawks have been moving the ball pretty well, while the Vikes just went through the motions against Detroit last week.  Favre has got to start throwing dumb picks again at some point, doesn’t he?

TAMPA BAY (+11.5) over New Orleans

The Saints keep winning, but they keep getting closer.  Tampa is awful, but has been better with Josh Freeman at QB.  The Saints should keep finding a way to win, but it will be close again.

ST. LOUIS (+9) over Arizona

The Cardinals are better on the road than at home, but St. Louis has looked better lately.  Steven Jackson is still a stud, and they had a good showing against the Saints last week.

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over NY Jets

With everything that has gone on in the last week, plus the fact that the Jets beat the Patriots earlier in the year, the Patriots should be on a mission this week at home.  New England can put a stranglehold on the division with a win, and this team will want a BIG win.

Cincinnati (-9.5) over OAKLAND

Letdown for the Bengals on the long trip west?  Probably, but that doesn’t seem to matter against the Raiders.  Jamarcus Russell is out, so Oakland should be better, but still not within 10 points.

Philadelphia (-2) over CHICAGO

Jay Cutler will get booed at home and handle it with all the maturity of Jay Cutler.

Indy (+1) over BALTIMORE

Baltimore’s defense isn’t as good as people say it is.

DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland

Detroit is at home.  That’s all I have to say about that.

Atlanta (+7) over NY GIANTS

I’m still picking against the Giants.  The bloom is off the rose and they’re going to regret signing Eli to that massive contract extension.  Upset Special.

San Diego (-3) over Denver

San Diego is hot and Denver is not.  The Broncos really aren’t very good.

HOUSTON (-3.5) over Tennessee

A Monday night game in Houston, with Vince Young in prime time.  Good for the Texans, bad for the Titans.

I was able to watch the first hour of the Portugal – Bosnia-Herzegovina game until it was decided before switching over to Slovenia – Russia.  The first half in Sarajevo was pretty sloppy for both teams.  Neither team looked particularly comfortable and their were lots of starts and stops without prolonged possessions.  The pitch looked to be in pretty rough shape, which may have contributed.  The stadium is apparently not very big, but it was certainly very loud and smoky.  Bosnia was missing four players from the first leg due to suspensions, so referee Roberto Rossetti was determined to keep control of the game.  Bosnia tried to press forward and got a couple of chances from outside, but Portugal stayed strong. 

Things started opening up a bit in the second half, and Rossetti seemed to let the players play more.  There were chances for both teams early in the second half from in close, but Raul Meireles scored at 56 minutes for Portugal off a defensive blunder and that was it.  Bosnia started falling apart after that and the fans apparently started throwing objects onto the field, even hitting an assistant referee.  Portugal won 2-0 on aggregate and advanced to the World Cup.

When I switched to the Slovenia – Russia game, Russia trailed 1-0, and I was just in time to see Russia go down to 10 men due to a straight red card that actually looked kind of weak.  This series was at 2-2, with Slovenia ahead because of away goals, so Russia played desperately.  They did have a couple of chances, and Slovenia missed some easy chances on counters, as Russia played everyone up.  A Russian player then received a second yellow, putting the team down to 9, but Russia continued to press forward and nearly scored late, but it was not meant to be.  Slovenia had an emotional celebration of their upset in front of their home crowd.

The controversial game was in Paris.  France beat Ireland in extra time when Thierry Henry hit the ball with his hand not once but twice, and then knocked a pass that William Gallas headed in for the winner.  Not only was there a double hand ball, but replays showed the play was offside, anyway.  Ireland had tied the series earlier on a nice goal by Robbie Keane, but they ended up getting a totally harsh result and deserved better.  There really needs to be some sort of limited replay in international soccer, maybe by utilizing coach’s challenges.

In the other games, Greece advanced over Ukraine and Algeria advanced over Egypt, both with 1-0 wins, and Uruguay advanced over Costa Rica after a 1-1 tie.  Costa Rica was literally seconds from advancing in group play before they gave up a late goal to the US at RFK Stadium that salvaged a tie, and now they end up staying home.  Brutal.

The US got thrashed by Denmark in a friendly, 3-1, giving up 3 goals in the first 10 minutes of the second half.  The next US tune up is not until March, at the Netherlands.  With the 32 team field set, all eyes turn to South Africa for the December 4 draw.

I’m not touching any more of the Belichick fallout.  Let’s just say it’s been a tough week to live in New England as a sports fan.  The sports talk radio has been especially vicious, and add to that the predictable savage hatchet jobs from the columnists, especially Shaughnessy and CTRL-C Borges.

We’ll know the entire 32 team field for the World Cup at the end of the day today, with the final leg of the six playoff matchups.  Greece is at Ukraine tied 0-0.  Portugal plays Bosnia at Sarajevo with a slim 1-0 lead.  It appears Portugal will have Bruno Alves (who scored the goal in the first leg) and Deco for the game, but no Ronaldo.  Apparently Ronaldo will be back from his ankle injury for Real Madrid’s ”clasico” against Barcelona on Nov. 29.

In the other matchups, Ireland plays France in Paris, with France up 1-0, Russia is at Slovenia with Russia ahead 2-1, Algeria plays Egypt in Sudan with Egypt up 2-0, and Uruguay hosts Costa Rica ahead 1-0.

The final draw for the World Cup is December 4.

Liverpool plays Manchester City at Anfield Saturday.  Glenn Johnson, Daniel Agger, and Steven Gerrard are expected back from their injuries, while Fernando Torres, Yossi Benayoun, and Albert Riera will continue to be sidelined, although Benayoun and Riera’s injuries may not keep them out the full four weeks that was originally expected.

Wisconsin scored the most points they’ve ever had vs. Michigan Saturday in the 45-24 win.  Michigan came in as the #1 rush offense in the Big 10 and got only 71 yards.  The Badgers struggled in the first half, as Scott Tolzien had an ugly interception and fumble, but Michigan only got 7 points off the turnovers thanks to a blocked field goal.  The Badgers then scored on all four of their second half possessions, with 3 touchdowns and a field goal.  John Clay rushed for 150 yards, Nick Toon had 5 catches for 98 yards and 2 TDs, Brad Nortman had one punt all day, and Scott Tolzien became the first UW QB to win Big 10 offensive player of the week twice in the same season.  He finished 16-24 for 240, with 4 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD.  I’d say the game was a small measure of payback for what Michigan has dished out to Badgers fans over the years, although we all remember the punch in the gut losses more than the wins. 

Wisconsin is now ranked #16 in the BCS, #14 USA Today, and #17 AP.  Collegefootballnews.com has them at #10 in their overall rankings.  The bowl picture is still very unclear, but the Outback Bowl vs. an SEC team seems likely, as long as they win the downright scary game this week in Evanston against Northwestern.

The media is going to love this.  In fact, they’re already gleefully blaming Bill Belichick for the loss to Indy.  After the game, Bob Costas, Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth, Marvin Harrison, and Tony Dungy all had variants of “he did not trust his defense.”  Over on ESPN, Trent Dilfer called the decision to go for it on 4th and 2 “ludicrous” and “ridiculous.” 

The Patriots’ clock management in the last two minutes was certainly curious.  They used their final two time outs when the clock was already stopped because of personnel problems, and therefore didn’t have the ability to challenge the spot on Kevin Faulk’s catch.  Preliminarily, I would submit that it was a terrible spot.  From what I could see, Faulk didn’t “juggle” the ball as Al Michaels described — he tipped it and then caught it.  To me, a “juggle” necessarily requires more than one tip.  Anyway, after he caught the pass, his feet landed on the ground, one north of the 30 yard line, and one on the 30 yard line.  I don’t know how that can be spotted short of the 30.  Obviously, that’s irrelevant now.

Bill Belichick made a Bill Belichick decision.  He is a coach who makes ballsy calls.  That’s who he is.  I actually think that decision showed how much he does trust his players.  He trusted one of the best offenses in the league to make two yards after they had already piled up 34 points and 477 yards in the game.  And he trusted his defense to keep the Colts out of the end zone from 29 yards out if the offense failed.  In fact, the Colts probably would have gotten the ball back even if the play had correctly been ruled a first down.  The Colts would’ve used their last time out before the 2:00 warning, Brady would’ve taken a knee, 2:00 warning, knee (3rd down), 1:20 left, knee (4th down), :40, punt.  So the Colts would’ve had about :35 seconds from somewhere in the neighborhood of their 35 yard line.

And while everyone is blaming Belichick, what about the Patriots’ two turnovers in the end zone on the first two possessions of the second half?  Were those Belichick’s fault?  That’s where the game should have been won.  The players lost the game, not the coach.

UPDATE: Advanced NFL Stats breaks down the Win Probability from the Patriots’ various options and concludes that going for it on the 4th and 2 was the right move.  I’m sure that will get a lot of media play.

So I went 9-13-1 on college picks and 5-9 on pro picks last week, all against the spread.  Not so good.  Interestingly, underdogs went 14-8-1 in the college top 25 and 10-3 in the pro games.  I am 23-16 overall on pro picks since I started picking three weeks ago.

This week’s top 25 college picks against the spread:

#1 Florida (-15) over South Carolina

Baylor (+25.5) over #2 Texas

Miss. St. (+12.5) over #3 Alabama

#16 Utah (+17.5) over #4 TCU

#5 Cincinnati (-9.5) over West Virginia

#6 Boise State (-28) over Idaho

#7 Georgia Tech (-10.5) over Duke

#8 Pitt (-7) over Notre Dame

#9 LSU (-24) over La. Tech

#10 Ohio State (-13.5) over #15 Iowa

#25 Stanford (+11.5) over #11 USC

North Carolina (+3.5) over #12 Miami

#13 Houston (-5.5) over Central Florida

#14 Oregon (-17) over Arizona State

#17 Oklahoma State (-3.5) over Texas Tech

#18 Arizona (-1.5) over Cal

Indiana (+22) over #19 Penn State

#20 Virginia Tech (-17) over Maryland

#21 Wisconsin (-9) over Michigan

New Mexico (+27) over #22 BYU

#23 South Florida (-1) over Rutgers

#24 Clemson (-6) over NC State

PRO:

San Fran (-3) over Chicago

Atlanta (-1) over Carolina

Tampa Bay (+10) over Miami

Detroit (+15.5) over Minnesota

Jacksonville (+7) over NY Jets

New Orleans (-14) over St. Louis

Buffalo (+6.5) over Tennessee

Oakland (-1) over KC

Arizona (-9) over Seattle

Dallas (-3) over Green Bay

San Diego (-3) over Philadelphia

New England (+2.5) over Indy

Cleveland (+12) over Baltimore

Cincinnati (+7.5) over Pittsburgh

Denver (-4.5) over Washington

The first leg of the World Cup Qualifying playoffs start Saturday.  Ireland hosts France, Slovenia at Russia, Bosnia at Porugal, and Ukraine at Greece in Europe, and then Uruguay at Costa Rica and New Zealand at Bahrain are the other matches.  Other countries are playing friendlies, including England vs. Argentina Brazil and the US vs. Slovakia.  The big story is that Cristiano Ronaldo will not play either leg for Portugal due to injury, and France will also be missing Franck Ribery.

I’ll add my voice to the joke of the Gold Glove (or as Dennis Eckersley would say, golden glove) Awards voting.  The great Bill James provides the best counterargument with his Fielding Bible.  He uses a panel of ten experts, including himself, to vote on the best fielders by position in major league baseball.  Of course, this is subjective, but so is the Gold Glove voting, which is done by managers and coaches in each league.  The Fielding Bible uses Bill James, Joe Posnanski, Peter Gammons, and Rob Neyer, among others.  Here are the 2009 Gold Glove winners, with their rank by the Fielding Bible:

AL

C Joe Mauer     3rd

1B Mark Teixeira     4th

2B Placido Polanco     6th

3B Evan Longoria     4th

SS Derek Jeter     17th (tied with Hanley Ramirez!)

OF Torii Hunter    9th

OF Adam Jones    22nd

OF Ichiro     1st

P Mark Buehrle     1st

NL

C Yadier Molina     1st

1B Adrian Gonzalez    3rd

2B Orlando Hudson     5th

3B Ryan Zimmerman     1st

SS Jimmy Rollins     8th

OF Michael Bourn     5th

OF Matt Kemp    14th

OF Shane Victorino     13th

P Adam Wainwright     24th (tie)

Now, some caveats.  The Fielding Bible ranks all major league players by position, that is, there is only one winner in all of baseball for each position.  And the Fielding Bible also breaks the outfielders down by position, left, center, and right, which seems to make more sense.  The NL Gold Glove outfield is all center fielders, while the AL has two center fielders and a right fielder.

The biggest disparities are Mr. Fist Pump, Adam Jones, and Adam Wainwright.

Here is the Fielding Bible’s list of 2009′s best defensive players in baseball:

C Yadier Molina

1B Albert Pujols

2B Aaron Hill

3B Ryan Zimmerman

SS Jack Wilson

LF Carl Crawford

CF Franklin Gutierrez

RF Ichiro

P Mark Buehrle

And here are the Fielding Bible’s ranks of Red Sox players:

C Varitek 11th

1B Youk 2nd

2B Pedroia 2nd

3B Lowell received no votes

SS Alex Gonzalez received one vote, 19th

LF Bay 10th

CF Ellsbury received no votes

RF Drew 8th

P Lester was the only Sox pitcher to receive any votes, 17th